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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations" by pcpune, there have been 6 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was revhappy.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: NG2012
On: September 19 2018 09:27 AM
But SIP investments do not provide enough entertainment. So one should keep 20-30% of their investments for direct equity investments and trading derivatives. While one may not earn money, you will learn a lot. And who knows you could be among the top 14% and make a killing
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: TruthSeeker1
On: September 19 2018 11:24 AM
[QUOTE=Sharpj;n2623901]Naw.. I think though the thesis come true, the outcome is not what you seem to predict so the skepticism .. The markets seem to be resilient and seem to have built in these scenarios.. so though there is a dip, the outcome of an destruction or collapse is not reasonably close I had asked you earlier.. can you tell when it will crack.. 6 months.. 1-2 years.. I don't think anyone can have a definite answer.. [QUOTE=TruthSeeker1;n2623862] despite many of the thesis coming true like rupee tanking ,crude going back up bears never get any credit ... this is why in investing you are never right.... about fed not being able to raise i agree i never thought they are that stupid but even those miniscule rises are wrecking the world.... and its not done until they are able to raise them to pre crisis high and shrink the balance sheet to preciris level.... 2. percent interest rate is still negetive when cpi is well bove fed target... i am right about US debt sittuation... did you check their latest deficit... ? its doubled since last year... the intial rush of dollars flowing back and ephoria caused by tax cuts is what is keeping it afloat... but writing is on the wall... [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE] even a doctor wont be able to tell you exactly on which date when ones lungs will bomb out if they smoke 5 packs a day... that does not make him wrong for telling one to cut down on smoking... if it were to crash tommorow and i called up and and told you just that, will you belive me and act ..? absolutely not ! so askign for such time line in markets is very useless since you dont believe in the fundamentels that are being presented to back up the case for a major down turn... this SIP and forget thing is now the wisdom beign throw around in the finacial media but if you see most of the new SIPS have started rather recently when markets are hitting all time highs... most ditn start their SIPS in 2009 when market had crashed hard ...so these people will panic and just sell out into a faling market makign matters worse... and about rupee crash, i have profited decently while doing nothing ie just waiting by not repatriating dollars for the last 18 months when i came back from USA... so my timing on that was not that far off... my negetive outlook on rupee giving back its false gains has come to fruition in a resonable time line... on precious metals i am clearly early but that is how markets are we can never time to perfection but we need to capture value when we see it (hitorically low prices)... I belive the next big gain is to be made is on precious metals portfolio... since its absolutely the most hated trade now... no one is talking GOLD... my portfolio: FX Dollar Cash FD Precious metals FX, Cash and FD are as liquid as it can get they are interest rate insensitive in a raising rates environement and set to profit handsomely if rates raise from these rock bottoms... for which probability is high Precious metal are hovering at multi year lows and by averaging for last 3 years my purchase price is very close to the current price with large purchases made recently.. so probability of this correcting upwards is higher given low prices adn negetive sentiment... So even i do SIP, but into assets that are historically cheaper and hated ....
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: TruthSeeker1
On: September 19 2018 11:35 AM
[QUOTE=revhappy;n2623948]In my view more money has been lost waiting for a correction, than in a correction itself. People should be normally invested in equities in passive ETFs, don't bet on stocks or sectors. Entire market won't crash. Individual stocks can crash. Even better if you can invest globally according to MSCI allocation, than a single country allocation. Indians look at equities like some kind of ******** den, trying to pick stocks, time the market etc. In the US, people have already given up on active investing. Just stay invested and don't give your money to any middle men for management. One day hopefully Indians will get there. [/QUOTE]this will be the make of the next major crash worse as passive investing especially indexed means large groups of people dont look at value all together they only buy a set of indexed stock which drive the markets higher fast..but when the trend reverses its will go down faster as selling will be coordinated and concetrated into the top heavy market... example if amazon falls its will take entire tech space with it... because evey gradama has amazon in her retiremnt portfolio as part of an Index... and when amazon starts falling she will panic and sell not just amazon but the entire index(ETF), draging every thing down irrespective of relative performance.... passive investing is good when not many people are doing it..if majority of market is passive its goign to end badly which is the the case now with a gelaxy of ETFs with same set of stocks...
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: revhappy
On: September 19 2018 03:54 PM
[QUOTE=TruthSeeker1;n2624067][QUOTE=revhappy;n2623948]In my view more money has been lost waiting for a correction, than in a correction itself. People should be normally invested in equities in passive ETFs, don't bet on stocks or sectors. Entire market won't crash. Individual stocks can crash. Even better if you can invest globally according to MSCI allocation, than a single country allocation. Indians look at equities like some kind of ******** den, trying to pick stocks, time the market etc. In the US, people have already given up on active investing. Just stay invested and don't give your money to any middle men for management. One day hopefully Indians will get there. [/QUOTE]this will be the make of the next major crash worse as passive investing especially indexed means large groups of people dont look at value all together they only buy a set of indexed stock which drive the markets higher fast..but when the trend reverses its will go down faster as selling will be coordinated and concetrated into the top heavy market... example if amazon falls its will take entire tech space with it... because evey gradama has amazon in her retiremnt portfolio as part of an Index... and when amazon starts falling she will panic and sell not just amazon but the entire index(ETF), draging every thing down irrespective of relative performance.... passive investing is good when not many people are doing it..if majority of market is passive its goign to end badly which is the the case now with a gelaxy of ETFs with same set of stocks... [/QUOTE]You are always worried about the next major crash. Let the crash come, we will deal with it. I am not saying crash wont happen, it will probably happen at sometime, but after that markets will be much higher. You have got some basic modern economics concepts wrong. People will keep earning money. All that money needs to go somewhere. The value of money itself may go down, but markets, companies will keep making profits and keep growing. Passive investment means, if some companies die, other companies will take their place and the index takes care of itself.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: NG2012
On: September 19 2018 04:25 PM
[QUOTE=revhappy;n2624113]People will keep earning money. All that money needs to go somewhere. [/QUOTE] Now all we need is a few more people expressing this sentiment. Crashes are usually preceded by such statements. But this is all anecdotal. In reality, I don't see a trigger that will cause a crash. Yes, overvaluation is a worry but a correction will take care of it...with pendulum going maybe a few notches in negative direction. However, isn't our financial market now matured enough to take care of sudden crashes? North Korea was a damp squib (a good thing!), Brexit is forgotten, Spain/Turkey/Greece credit crisis isn't mentioned anywhere anymore, US-China trade war may escalate but don't seem to be a major concern. I honestly fail to see why this trade war will impact China's exports very deeply. Chinese might start manufacturing in the US but that's a few years away. Overall I see calm and unprecedented prosperity in the world. Is there a storm brewing? May be I should start reading Peter Schiff's articles and start being fearful!
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: revhappy
On: September 19 2018 04:31 PM
[QUOTE=NG2012;n2624117][QUOTE=revhappy;n2624113]People will keep earning money. All that money needs to go somewhere. [/QUOTE] Now all we need is a few more people expressing this sentiment. Crashes are usually preceded by such statements. But this is all anecdotal. In reality, I don't see a trigger that will cause a crash. Yes, overvaluation is a worry but a correction will take care of it...with pendulum going maybe a few notches in negative direction. However, isn't our financial market now matured enough to take care of sudden crashes? North Korea was a damp squib (a good thing!), Brexit is forgotten, Spain/Turkey/Greece credit crisis isn't mentioned anywhere anymore, US-China trade war may escalate but don't seem to be a major concern. I honestly fail to see why this trade war will impact China's exports very deeply. Chinese might start manufacturing in the US but that's a few years away. Overall I see calm and unprecedented prosperity in the world. Is there a storm brewing? May be I should start reading Peter Schiff's articles and start being fearful! [/QUOTE]Yes, indeed, crashes like 2008 happen once is a few decades, after the great depression, the 2008 crash was the biggest. There is no cycle like thing that it happens every 10 years. The 2008 crash too was a quick dip and markets were back within a year. I dont think we will have another crash like that for another 20-30 years. 10% correction is a big thing already. 20% correction means you should sell your house everything and buy equities. Truthseeker, is going to rue his decision of staying in gold. We will come back after 10 years and see where are stock markets and where is gold.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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