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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Real Estate Bubble Set to Burst Again in India" by MANOJa, there have been 2 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was MANOJa.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
These following posts were made to the thread:
My theory - the prices in NCR will fall by 25-30 by 2019-20 Tell me where is the flow in this theory
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: g.angi
On: March 15 2018 11:38 AM
# 25-30 per cent #flaw (typos in title) [subject line is not editable it seems] Couple of weeks back, I bumped into a renowned real estate analyst. Since the topic is so close to my heart, we had a very candid discussion on where one sees the real estate prices are heading to? Has it already hit a bottom or there is some more juice left? I couldn't disagree to what he said but somewhere my heart was looking for an opposite conclusion – after all my hard earned money is at stack :( Looking for your advice – please find out some flaws in his theory. According to him, the real estate prices would fall by 20-30% by 2020 in NCR – and he was talking about 'ready to move-in' properties. Ready to move-in properties have not witnessed significant drop so far, the correction has been mainly in under-construction category. Following was the rational for his conclusion: a) RERA came into effect this year and most of the new/existing projects have been registered with it. All the projects, even if they were launched ten years back, have given the completion date between 2018 to 2020. b) Under the current situation when judiciary and government have tighten the noose, builders are extremely unlikely to default on the timelines set with RERA. They would either deliver the projects or announce the insolvency and leave the project to be completed by someone else. I am sure they have no intention to pay heavy interest on delays. c) NCR has unsold inventory to the extent of around 3,00,000 which is 35% of the total under-construction lot. On a conservative side, around 20-30% of the sold inventory is lying with volume investors who would never want to register property on their name – it would mean significant cash outflow for them. Further, with implementation of Benami Act, linking of ADHAAR card and change in income tax laws, real estate has lost its tag as lucrative investment. d) With simple mathematics, we can expect guaranteed flow of around 6-7 lacs units that would be up for sale by 2020. Mind you, all of them would be ready to move-in. e) Builders and investors would face tremendous pressure to clear the inventory by bankers and authorities respectively f) This situation would trigger price reduction of ready to move-in property anywhere between 20-30% or may be more. Just to put in perspective, in business as usual, an inventory of 6-7 Lac would take around 8 years to clear.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: MANOJa
On: March 15 2018 10:10 PM
[h=1]Real estate showing signs of revival: Venkaiah Naidu[/h] The construction and real estate sector plays a vital role as it is the second largest job provider after agriculture.PTI | March 15, 2018, 18:06 IST NEW DELHI: The real estate sector is showing signs of revival after a period of slowdown, Vice President M [URL="https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/venkaiah+naidu"]Venkaiah Naidu[/URL] on Thursday said but expressed concern over high prices of land parcels especially in smaller cities. Addressing realtors' body [URL="https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/credai"]CREDAI[/URL] annual conclave, he asked the association to adopt self code of conduct for members and keep distance from defaulting and fly-by-night operators. "After a period of slowdown in the market, the realty sector market is once again showing signs of revival, which is good for the economy," he said. The construction and real estate sector plays a vital role as it is the second largest job provider after agriculture, he added. Naidu hoped that the CREDAI is well geared to implement the best practices as required in the new real estate law [URL="https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/rera"]RERA[/URL] ([URL="https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/real+estate+regulatory+authority"]Real Estate Regulatory Authority[/URL]). Referring to the court cases filed by home buyers against builders, Naidu said there is a need for regulator but regulations should not become strangulations. "If there is no regulation, then you have more and more Vijay Mallya's, you have Nirav Modi's.....," the vice president said, adding that this realty law was passed during his stint as Minister of Urban Development. The law, which came into effect from May last year, seeks to bring much-needed transparency in the property sector. On high land price, Naidu said he wondered prices of land in Vijaywada and other places, are equivalent to New York and Washington. The cost of housing units is going up because of land, he said. Stating that land parcels are largely held by middle men, Naidu said, "there is a need for price correction" and "reality has to come in the real estate sector". He also expressed concern over massive housing shortage of 19 million units currently, estimated to double at 38 million units by 2030. Highlighting steps taken by the government to boost [URL="https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/affordable+housing"]affordable housing[/URL], the vice president said this segment will drive the real estate sector in coming months. Naidu said the private players have a great role to play in providing homes to people. The delay in clearance for housing projects should be addressed by local bodies, he said, adding that there should not be obstruction in development in the name of environment. Earlier, CREDAI President Jaxay Shah highlighted that initiatives taken by the association towards skill development of construction workers and waste management as well as environment protection. He also informed that member developers have taken up affordable housing projects in a big way. [url]https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/real-estate-showing-signs-of-revival-venkaiah-naidu/63318658[/url]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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