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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations" by pcpune, there have been 6 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was revhappy.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: Sharpj
On: February 27 2018 10:12 AM
Seriously you have not invested in MF and markets so stop showing your ignorance. You can continue to invest in RE as it it is the only asset class you have any idea about. I would rather have others evaluate and invest based on their needs not randomly get fixated on a asset class All investments have risk... [QUOTE=humblefool;n2584973]This talk looks fine while in 20s and 30s, while you have age and energy to recover. In 50s and 60s if the market crashes you can lose your sanity rather too quickly. You can say market will recover, but with you in old age with no cover, have to sit and cry in front of a terminal waiting for prices to stabilize, if they don't with some major responsibilities starting in your face your story will be totally over. What then? that is too major a risk to take. [/QUOTE]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: Lincymat
On: February 27 2018 12:32 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2584853][QUOTE=Sharpj;n2584841]Hmm.. 20 years later if you want to come back and if you have done well and planned your retirement, you should be able to afford a house easily.. I don't see Bangalore RE beating inflation and running away beyond means.. It has been more or less stagnant See the predicament is dude is when you are away for such a long time.. you never know where you will go to.. In all probabilities if you have stayed in a place for 10 years or more that is home.. if the facilities are decent.. If you have some one from Hyderabad/Kolkotta/Chennai staying in Bangalore for 10 years, he treats Bangalore as home.. similar corollary works.. for other cities too.. RE as a place to stay has to be there and should be part of your retirement planning whether it is in your village or in the place you work whatever you can afford and is not exactly a investment.. There are other modes which are better investments than RE. [QUOTE=humblefool;n2584741] But I want one home where I can live, at the end of all this. I don't want to arrive some 20 years later and discover that prices and rents have gone beyond affordable and will eat into a big chunk of my retirement corpus. May be you earn really well and are confident. But I have struggled all life and don't have a big break in my career yet. If my future turns out to be like my past, I don't wish to be screwed in old age. I save anything and every thing I can for the rainy days. [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]Sure, this makes sense to you. This is what you should do. The home my dad bought in 2002, in then outskirts Bangalore, now costs 15x today. There is no way he would have been able to afford it now. Let alone being able to afford buying the home, we wouldn't be able to afford the rents in our area. Also home sizes have shrunk even for renting. Its not like you get spacious homes you would get in the 90s. I don't know about other people income sources. Im a salaried man, and I don't see mass swing of money coming to me with age. I also don't have any high connections up management at office, and I don't lick my boss's boots. So literally I have to just make it up on brute force work. Everybody's situation is different. Either way if you have crores in savings, you don't even have to worry about these things. It also depends on family situation. I come from relatively poor financial background. Some other well off colleagues at offfice, whose dad's were bank managers and had desk jobs in a generation back itself, don't even understand my issues due to inheritance intertia those families have. Either way, if you are in a situation where you can wait for 20 YEARS and yet be able to [b]easily[/b] afford a home anywhere in Bangalore, I have to assume you have to be insanely rich beyond belief. Most of things may not even apply to you. Only today I was talking to the office cab driver, he apparently routinely misses his son's school fees to pay car EMI. So everybody's orbit is in their own universe. Having the luxury to not worry about real estate is luxury of riches of the rich in India. Leave these small battles for us poor to win. You have that those double digit crore cushions anyway. [/QUOTE]Your dad did the right thing then buying the house. You got a CAGR of about 18% through these years which is significant. But you should also remember that property prices were extremely depressed then. I remember calling off a property deal for a 30x40 plot in HRBR layout because the wife of the owner demanded Rs. 575 psf instead of the Rs. 550 promised by the husband. Ultimately it came to 570 but then my ego took over. So 18% CAGR from an extremely depressed market will not be replicated for a long time to come. I remember property prices falling upto 60% in Mumbai. My uncle sold his Bandra property for 40% of the peak price. He wanted to settle down in Mumbai. In asset bear markets, markets gives back the gains of the past couple of years. Similarly in bull markets, markets frontloads the gain of the next two years. So the excessive gains of RE came between 2005 to 2013. The reason why RE does not interest me is that there is no operational leverage unlike in stocks. RE can give quick and ad-hoc value addition in terms of infrastructure or new industries in the viciniry. But in company P&L statements there is a line item called "Depreciation" where certain amount iof money is set aside for depreciating plant and machinery. This is one line item a RE investor never thinks about. So actual gains from RE could be much less than the point to point appreciation. But seing your bakground I can understand your strong conviction for investing in RE. But having read your posts I believe you are quite smart should and you start some investiments in stocks. I am partially retired and most of my gains came from investing in stocks in bear markets.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: humblefool
On: February 27 2018 04:27 PM
[QUOTE=Sharpj;n2585071]Seriously you have not invested in MF and markets so stop showing your ignorance. You can continue to invest in RE as it it is the only asset class you have any idea about. I would rather have others evaluate and invest based on their needs not randomly get fixated on a asset class All investments have risk... [QUOTE=humblefool;n2584973]This talk looks fine while in 20s and 30s, while you have age and energy to recover. In 50s and 60s if the market crashes you can lose your sanity rather too quickly. You can say market will recover, but with you in old age with no cover, have to sit and cry in front of a terminal waiting for prices to stabilize, if they don't with some major responsibilities starting in your face your story will be totally over. What then? that is too major a risk to take. [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]Sure, like I said, if this is what works for you, go for it. Everybody must do what is best for them, and live with whatever positive or negative consequences.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: humblefool
On: February 27 2018 04:35 PM
[QUOTE=Lincymat;n2585120][QUOTE=humblefool;n2584853][QUOTE=Sharpj;n2584841]Hmm.. 20 years later if you want to come back and if you have done well and planned your retirement, you should be able to afford a house easily.. I don't see Bangalore RE beating inflation and running away beyond means.. It has been more or less stagnant See the predicament is dude is when you are away for such a long time.. you never know where you will go to.. In all probabilities if you have stayed in a place for 10 years or more that is home.. if the facilities are decent.. If you have some one from Hyderabad/Kolkotta/Chennai staying in Bangalore for 10 years, he treats Bangalore as home.. similar corollary works.. for other cities too.. RE as a place to stay has to be there and should be part of your retirement planning whether it is in your village or in the place you work whatever you can afford and is not exactly a investment.. There are other modes which are better investments than RE. [QUOTE=humblefool;n2584741] But I want one home where I can live, at the end of all this. I don't want to arrive some 20 years later and discover that prices and rents have gone beyond affordable and will eat into a big chunk of my retirement corpus. May be you earn really well and are confident. But I have struggled all life and don't have a big break in my career yet. If my future turns out to be like my past, I don't wish to be screwed in old age. I save anything and every thing I can for the rainy days. [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]Sure, this makes sense to you. This is what you should do. The home my dad bought in 2002, in then outskirts Bangalore, now costs 15x today. There is no way he would have been able to afford it now. Let alone being able to afford buying the home, we wouldn't be able to afford the rents in our area. Also home sizes have shrunk even for renting. Its not like you get spacious homes you would get in the 90s. I don't know about other people income sources. Im a salaried man, and I don't see mass swing of money coming to me with age. I also don't have any high connections up management at office, and I don't lick my boss's boots. So literally I have to just make it up on brute force work. Everybody's situation is different. Either way if you have crores in savings, you don't even have to worry about these things. It also depends on family situation. I come from relatively poor financial background. Some other well off colleagues at offfice, whose dad's were bank managers and had desk jobs in a generation back itself, don't even understand my issues due to inheritance intertia those families have. Either way, if you are in a situation where you can wait for 20 YEARS and yet be able to [b]easily[/b] afford a home anywhere in Bangalore, I have to assume you have to be insanely rich beyond belief. Most of things may not even apply to you. Only today I was talking to the office cab driver, he apparently routinely misses his son's school fees to pay car EMI. So everybody's orbit is in their own universe. Having the luxury to not worry about real estate is luxury of riches of the rich in India. Leave these small battles for us poor to win. You have that those double digit crore cushions anyway. [/QUOTE]Your dad did the right thing then buying the house. You got a CAGR of about 18% through these years which is significant. But you should also remember that property prices were extremely depressed then. I remember calling off a property deal for a 30x40 plot in HRBR layout because the wife of the owner demanded Rs. 575 psf instead of the Rs. 550 promised by the husband. Ultimately it came to 570 but then my ego took over. So 18% CAGR from an extremely depressed market will not be replicated for a long time to come. I remember property prices falling upto 60% in Mumbai. My uncle sold his Bandra property for 40% of the peak price. He wanted to settle down in Mumbai. In asset bear markets, markets gives back the gains of the past couple of years. Similarly in bull markets, markets frontloads the gain of the next two years. So the excessive gains of RE came between 2005 to 2013. The reason why RE does not interest me is that there is no operational leverage unlike in stocks. RE can give quick and ad-hoc value addition in terms of infrastructure or new industries in the viciniry. But in company P&L statements there is a line item called "Depreciation" where certain amount iof money is set aside for depreciating plant and machinery. This is one line item a RE investor never thinks about. So actual gains from RE could be much less than the point to point appreciation. But seing your bakground I can understand your strong conviction for investing in RE. But having read your posts I believe you are quite smart should and you start some investiments in stocks. I am partially retired and most of my gains came from investing in stocks in bear markets. [/QUOTE]Sorry but by what definition were property prices low back then? Property prices were low only if: a. You had a software job, and US onsite visit opportunities. b. Gulf job and returns from there. My dad literally emptied whatever he had all life and still had a good enough debt on top of it. I had to do bazillion side jobs to even pay my fees. And we didn't have furniture when we relocated there. Property prices were never low. There are Kannda satire movies from the 90s that depict the plight of middle class wanting to afford a home. [i][b]The deal is what if you had an opportunity and still let it go? Or in other words if were a software or gulf guy, what should you have done?[/b][/i] This talk of Bangalore saturating, or prices coming down is all water. Everyone knows India growth and urbanization story is here to stay. If your salary levels are high, then there is still value left to take. Neither the population is going to come down, nor will the cities stop growing, nor will people's ambition come down. These are just perpetual phenomenon here to stay. And please lets not chide other people for flooding the cities, they are entitled to a good job and life as much as anyone else does, and if they earn and afford a home, there is nothing wrong in it.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: humblefool
On: February 27 2018 08:51 PM
[i]In one of your previous comments you said you would not be able to afford your current house now. I presume you are earning much more than what you were then. This is what I said. In 15 years the house has become unaffordable. If an asset becomes unaffordable for those whose incomes are increasing, then it means there is an asset bubble.[/i] [USER="224150"]Lincymat[/USER] Or one's purchasing power isn't constant at all ages in life. And its also a function of risk taking ability at various parts in life. Shorter the time to recover + Higher the stake -> Harder it is to take risks. What's driving any bubble in India is population. And this is not just with homes, businessmen sell more clothes because there are basically more people to sell too. This should have worked ideally with homes too, but another economic princple of 'supply' is at play there. Lands and ability to manufacture raw materials has upper limit here. In case of mobile phone, clothes and even mobile connections its easy to scale, you just put a machine and manufacture things. You can't manufacture land. This is the standard with all things of short supply, like for eg 'Gold'. If you call this a 'bubble', then we are looking at bubble whose cycles will outlast this century.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: revhappy
On: February 28 2018 04:16 AM
Guys, request you to please take this property discussion to other threads in this forum. This is the lone thread for non property discussion. Let's please keep it that way.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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