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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations" by pcpune, there have been 5 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was ashish18.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: ashish18
On: November 9 2017 01:23 PM
[QUOTE=Sharpj;n2564071]Is there a connection between these random unconnected events in the Middle East. Can all this bring oil back to boil.. What do you guys think.. Is there a risk and with the markets slightly over heating, will these risks to be considered and will it have an impact on our markets.. What do you guys think..[/QUOTE]While you might be right about the events, look at the money and kind of people who are putting in money. just read 75 lac more new MF accounts got added into MF more. We are in the middle of a hype and don't estimate the power of liquidity and more so foolish liquidity. foolish liquidity brings a short term gush and this is easily countering fii's money. Don't get bearish yet unless big sel from fii's happens. identify the sectors which have not moved , buy and sit tight for the movement. dont give up yet, there is at least 10-15% more to this markets
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: ashish18
On: November 9 2017 01:29 PM
[QUOTE=atwitsend;n2562812]Guys What are your thoughts on Bharat 22 ETF ? [url]http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets-business/bharat-22-etf-should-you-invest-and-how-is-it-different-from-cpse-2418785.html[/url] This looks better than cpse etf[/QUOTE]@atwitsend While i termed it as junk few days back,. On second thoughts, i looked at the composition and for short term (2-3) years this could be best fund to buy. It seems to mostly contain the junk elephant psu's which have not moved much and their time is coming. So depends on time-frame i would say.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: atwitsend
On: November 9 2017 08:34 PM
[QUOTE=ashish18;n2564554]@atwitsend While i termed it as junk few days back,. On second thoughts, i looked at the composition and for short term (2-3) years this could be best fund to buy. It seems to mostly contain the junk elephant psu's which have not moved much and their time is coming. So depends on time-frame i would say. [/QUOTE] What made you look at this again? One thing to note is most of these guys are paying handsome dividends and are nifty stocks - etf is offering 3% discount. I was thinking of putting some in it instead of going for other crazy IPOs - luckily didnt subscribe for GIC and NIC. However I got some of ICICI Lombard - whats your view on this for 1-2 years? It had gained abt 10% in a month and down a bit now though still in profit. Do you have any short term strategy to take good advantage of this liquidity fueled rally without significant risk? I dont think its going to end soon - bubble always gets bigger than you imagine before bursting - you just dont want to get in at the last stage, rather get out before it.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: Manoj2012
On: November 9 2017 11:39 PM
[B]Flat U.S. Yield Curve Is All About Momentum and Algos[/B] This trend has historically been associated with a slowing economy, but what's baffling to many is that there are no signs of weakness. By Scott Dorf November 9, 2017, 6:29 PM GMT+5:30 It's hard enough to get the public to pay much attention to the market for U.S. Treasuries even in the best of times. And with volatility recently falling to a record low, mom and pop don't need to check their IRA's to see what their bond funds are doing. Treasury 10-year yields are trading at 2.32 percent, right at their average for the year. But don't be fooled by the seeming stability, for underneath this placid façade lies a powerful trend. The yield curve, or difference between short- and long-term bond rates, has been flattening like a pancake, with the pace accelerating the past few weeks and garnering a wave of media attention. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have fallen to within 69 basis points of two-year yields from about 125 basis points at the start of the year. The last time the gap was this narrow was 2007. This is an important development because a narrower yield curve has historically been associated with a slowing economy. But what's baffling to many is that there are no signs of economic weakness, with growth coming in at a 3 percent pace and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too slowly to threaten the expansion. [IMG]https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iUBRJ.xOw4v0/v2/-1x-1.png[/IMG] The shrinking yield curve is both rational and a complete mystery. Yields on two-year notes have edged higher in recent weeks, to about 1.63 percent, which is the highest in a decade. That's the part of the equation that makes sense because the Fed has made clear its intent to continue raising rates, including a hike next month to a range of 1.25 percent to 1.50 percent, from the current 1 percent to 1.25 percent. Simple math dictates that short-term bond yields are held captive by the overnight rate, and the money markets show traders are placing the odds of rate increase next month at 90 percent. While the short-end of the yield curve can easily be explained, it's the long end that is the mystery. The 4-basis-point increase in two-year yields in recent weeks has been overwhelmed by the big 11-basis-point drop in 10-year yields. The move in 30-year bonds is even more remarkable, as yields have dropped 18 basis points to 2.79 percent. That translates into a 3 ½-point increase in prices, or $35 per $1,000 face amount. What makes the move unusual is that there is little evidence that demand is being driven by foreign investors, which has usually been the case in recent history whenever yields fall. [IMG]https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i.B9iXyuPJLA/v2/-1x-1.png[/IMG] Instead, the movements suggest the drop in longer-term yields is related to action in the futures market, specifically the 20-year contract. The nature of the futures market means it's hard to pin responsibility on any one group of traders. In this day and age of high-speed digital and algorithmic trading, though, large players can move huge positions quickly and anonymously, avoiding the large dealer banks that used to control the flows in the cash markets. The consensus is that there are a number of futures-only leveraged players driving the gains in longer maturities, particularly risk-parity funds that add to long positions as volatility falls. Also, many futures-focused hedge funds are trend followers, looking to profit from sustained moves in the market. As such, the flattening yield curve is forcing them to add to existing positions, as many systemic models get more aggressive the more a trade works in their favor. Plus, there are signs that demand is coming from pension funds, particularly for long-dated Treasury zero coupon bonds. Finally, the U.S. Treasury Department has indicated the huge increases in government debt coming will initially be skewed toward shorter maturities, which is helping to alleviate concern about increased supply in longer maturities. Although the pressure on shorter-term maturities coming from the Fed and the robust economy should persist, the flows holding up the long end of the yield curve have less of a fundamental basis and could turn around very easily, catching a growing crowd on the wrong side of the flattener trade. Sticking with the parts of the curve where the Fed is in charge is the safer play. Today's auction of 30-year bonds by the Treasury should provide a sense of the depth of the demand for longer-term bonds. Bloomberg Prophets Professionals offering actionable insights on markets, the economy and monetary policy. Contributors may have a stake in the areas they write about.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: ashish18
On: November 10 2017 12:57 AM
[QUOTE=atwitsend;n2564618][QUOTE=ashish18;n2564554]@atwitsend While i termed it as junk few days back,. On second thoughts, i looked at the composition and for short term (2-3) years this could be best fund to buy. It seems to mostly contain the junk elephant psu's which have not moved much and their time is coming. So depends on time-frame i would say. [/QUOTE] What made you look at this again? One thing to note is most of these guys are paying handsome dividends and are nifty stocks - etf is offering 3% discount. I was thinking of putting some in it instead of going for other crazy IPOs - luckily didnt subscribe for GIC and NIC. However I got some of ICICI Lombard - whats your view on this for 1-2 years? It had gained abt 10% in a month and down a bit now though still in profit. Do you have any short term strategy to take good advantage of this liquidity fueled rally without significant risk? I dont think its going to end soon - bubble always gets bigger than you imagine before bursting - you just dont want to get in at the last stage, rather get out before it.[/QUOTE]My first reaction was due to innate hate for psu's of india which has only thrived in this country because no fair private enterprise was allowed to exist and over the years time s have changed. But then recently i was looking for which could be next potential movers in the markets and at this point in markets probbaly the best bet could be some psu's like ongc and nmdc, i recently also bought idfc (when its merger with sriram fell off). I dont have any large caps in my long term portfolio. Bharat-22 has some good stocks which i like for purely technical reasons (monthly charts) ongc, ntpc, nhpc, pfc etc. Not as a core holding but keeping it for 2-3 years should be fine.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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