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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Real Estate Bubble Set to Burst Again in India" by MANOJa, there have been 23 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was flatowner2.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: VibhorD
On: July 5 2017 12:22 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2529935]Is this an RE discussion?[/QUOTE] There's nothing left to discuss in RE.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: MANOJa
On: July 5 2017 12:35 PM
[COLOR=#FF0000][U]Off Topic[/U][/COLOR] Please make every effort to keep your posts relevant to the active thread topic. Detours usually take a thread wildly off topic, and invite others to do the same. Off topic posts (and any responses to such posts) may be deleted without notice.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 5 2017 03:06 PM
[QUOTE=VibhorD;n2530170] There's nothing left to discuss in RE.[/QUOTE] There is lots to discuss. I am left wondering whether there was a bubble in first place or not. It is pretty clear that prices have not come down from builders, though freebies and other incentives have been offered. In resale, there is an avg 10% room for negotiations.....but is this really a bubble? I am not concerned with fate of DLF,Unitech etc. By RE bubble i understand prices would come crashing down when it happens... ....but it has not happened yet...atleast in terms of prices.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 5 2017 03:12 PM
[USER="78537"]MANOJa[/USER] sir.... read a lot but learnt nothing about state of RE in GGN, rather personal life philosophies of people who are definitely not humble. Please request your views like a summary from 2011 to 2017 about the trends observation atleast in terms of GGN RE.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manzb
On: July 5 2017 03:20 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530257] There is lots to discuss. I am left wondering whether there was a bubble in first place or not. It is pretty clear that prices have not come down from builders, though freebies and other incentives have been offered. In resale, there is an avg 10% room for negotiations.....but is this really a bubble? I am not concerned with fate of DLF,Unitech etc. By RE bubble i understand prices would come crashing down when it happens... ....but it has not happened yet...atleast in terms of prices. [/QUOTE] So let us say someone bought a property worth 1 Cr in 2013. Since then the prices have either remained stagnant or came down a bit 10-15% if not more.. So in effect the value of the property is less than 50 lacs, considering the following losses .. 1. Time value of money for last 4 years is 35-40% 2. Actual cost reduction is 10-15% That's a total of 45-60%.. So in effect basis 2013, market has already corrected hugely.. despite that the market still not affordable.. it needs either stagnation of 2-3 years or 20-25% price reduction on immediate basis.. I think it is more likely to be stagnation for another 2-3 years before the market becomes a bit affordable ..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: MANOJa
On: July 5 2017 03:22 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530260][USER="78537"]MANOJa[/USER] sir.... read a lot but learnt nothing about state of RE in GGN, rather personal life philosophies of people who are definitely not humble. Please request your views like a summary from 2011 to 2017 about the trends observation atleast in terms of GGN RE.[/QUOTE] Would hopefully summarize, if i get time from Moderation . I have done that in the past, would need to look for the Posts . On such Post is [url]https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/12971-why-property-prices-are-escalating-in-gurgaon?p=279129#post279129[/url] . Go through the whole thread, its not bad .
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 5 2017 03:39 PM
[QUOTE=manzb;n2530266] So let us say someone bought a property worth 1 Cr in 2013. Since then the prices have either remained stagnant or came down a bit 10-15% if not more.. So in effect the value of the property is less than 50 lacs, considering the following losses .. 1. Time value of money for last 4 years is 35-40% 2. Actual cost reduction is 10-15% That's a total of 45-60%.. So in effect basis 2013, market has already corrected hugely.. despite that the market still not affordable.. it needs either stagnation of 2-3 years or 20-25% price reduction on immediate basis.. I think it is more likely to be stagnation for another 2-3 years before the market becomes a bit affordable ..[/QUOTE] Yes, inflation based depreciation is there, but that is also very limited to some locations. Lets pick a location/locality here to make this discussion interesting. This is just for debate and my personal opinion. I am not invested or attached to either of the localities: Good location - GCX In 2011 - avg psft price 5800 now - 8000 Bad location - New GGN 2011 - 2900 now - 4100 *All data from magicbricks trends The trends dont really show a bubble...they infact show healthy appreciation.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: Magadh_Pride
On: July 5 2017 04:21 PM
What is sunk cost? All money (own or loan) has an opportunity cost.. Skewed calculation to buttress a baseless point..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: shalumani
On: July 5 2017 05:25 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530257] There is lots to discuss. I am left wondering whether there was a bubble in first place or not. It is pretty clear that prices have not come down from builders, though freebies and other incentives have been offered. In resale, there is an avg 10% room for negotiations.....but is this really a bubble? I am not concerned with fate of DLF,Unitech etc. By RE bubble i understand prices would come crashing down when it happens... ....but it has not happened yet...atleast in terms of prices. [/QUOTE] Read my earlier posts. An apartment that was selling for 90 lakhs in January 2016 is now being offered at 70 lakhs. This is Chennai where the said apartment can be rented out for 22,000 when non furnished, and 30,000 when furnished. Reduction in cost of 22% is not minor. Similarly, builders in Raj Nagar extension have reduced prices by up to 10% for complete or almost complete projects. This reduction is despite the fact that RNE never had the wild upswing that Noida or Gurgaon had
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: shalumani
On: July 5 2017 05:27 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530282] Yes, inflation based depreciation is there, but that is also very limited to some locations. Lets pick a location/locality here to make this discussion interesting. This is just for debate and my personal opinion. I am not invested or attached to either of the localities: Good location - GCX In 2011 - avg psft price 5800 now - 8000 Bad location - New GGN 2011 - 2900 now - 4100 *All data from magicbricks trends The trends dont really show a bubble...they infact show healthy appreciation. [/QUOTE] You really believe Magic Bricks data? A website that survives on Real Estate doing well?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: VibhorD
On: July 5 2017 05:27 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530257] There is lots to discuss. I am left wondering whether there was a bubble in first place or not. It is pretty clear that prices have not come down from builders, though freebies and other incentives have been offered. In resale, there is an avg 10% room for negotiations.....but is this really a bubble? I am not concerned with fate of DLF,Unitech etc. By RE bubble i understand prices would come crashing down when it happens... ....but it has not happened yet...atleast in terms of prices. [/QUOTE] By "nothing left" i mean negligible deals are happening in RE nowdays. No new projects are being launched. The market is in kind of hibernation mode. So people here are also in chilled out mode and seldom coming up with new topics.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 5 2017 05:36 PM
I dont know what to say. Magicbricks or 99 acres or any other re site, functions on advertisement model. you put up an ad...pay for it...how do they gain from fudging numbers?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 5 2017 05:43 PM
[QUOTE=VibhorD;n2530359] By "nothing left" i mean negligible deals are happening in RE nowdays. No new projects are being launched. The market is in kind of hibernation mode. So people here are also in chilled out mode and seldom coming up with new topics.[/QUOTE] Impending RERA implementation is a large factor in it. People wont buy under-construction property unless there is a clarity from govt whether they are protected or not. Though govt says that ongoing projects are under RERA, but it is yet to be notified by any state govts. There is an uncertainty about a lot of things. This is bound to slow things down. A lot of my friends have bought RTM properties in resale in last few months. A lot of them are on lookout for good deals. But no one is ready to invest in under-construction properties. Can slowdown in transactions or launches be termed as bubble burst?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manas30
On: July 5 2017 05:54 PM
[QUOTE=shalumani;n2530357] Read my earlier posts. An apartment that was selling for 90 lakhs in January 2016 is now being offered at 70 lakhs. This is Chennai where the said apartment can be rented out for 22,000 when non furnished, and 30,000 when furnished. Reduction in cost of 22% is not minor. Similarly, builders in Raj Nagar extension have reduced prices by up to 10% for complete or almost complete projects. This reduction is despite the fact that RNE never had the wild upswing that Noida or Gurgaon had[/QUOTE] [U][B]Peace Guys![/B][/U] Let me explain the divergence of views here- Both stock mkt and Real estate have an average index and individual stocks/locations. [U][B]1. Real estate[/B][/U] On an average real estate has [B]given below par returns from 2013-17. [/B]Many areas it is almost at same price o[B]r slightly down.[/B]However, there are local micromarkets- like [B]Varanasi, Some coorg farmland [/B]etc. etc. , may be some places near new airports- where[B] land prices are 3x in the same period[/B]. Most people have invested in flats in NCR, Bangalore which haven't gone up (as [B]flats depreciate with time)- while Humblefool is invested in land- which has done still okiesh. [/B]So, it is natural that most people don't agree with views of Humblefool. Now, on an average real estate did very well from 2003-2012- so whether it was flat, or land, it went up many times in most of the places. - Now, coming to the future. The fact is in 2003- our land/flat prices were a fraction of prices in USA/EU. Now, we are at PAR. So, going forward, it is almost impossible to get similar returns. However, returns in micro-markets/special areas is still possible as I mentioned above. [B]2. Stock mkt[/B] Some thing similar happened in stock mkt- from 2003-2007- sensex went up 4x, and most portfolios and stocks went up many times. However, from 2007-2017, the return in index is only 50%- that is again below inflation (like real estate) But, here again, there are many stocks that went 100x in 2007-2017- there is Ajanta pharma, MRF, Cupid, and many others. Personally, I am all in the stock mkt. Invested from 2012. My networth has exploded from 80 lakhs to 8 crores in last 5 yrs. Overall, the index hasn't done anything, but individual stocks have multiplied like anything. Even in last 3 mths, you will find many stocks that doubled in just 3 mths. From 2003-07, it was easy money- in both real estate and stock mkt- land/flat/stocks/mutual funds- all went up many times- most of them. Right now, it is pretty tough to make money. You need to have extra information. Get a land deal at distress valuation. Make flats- sell them. Or, in stock mkt- identify stocks before market recognizes them. [B]Can you double your money in next 2 years- Yes, in both stock mkt and real estate. But 99% investors will not be able to do it. Only the smart ones. There is no easy money and easy returns like that of 2003-07 any more guys. Get real![/B] There are people like Humblefool that will continue to make money in real estate and like me who will continue to make money in stock market- Irrespective of the index/average investor Going forward, I expect real estate to continue with time correction for next 3-4 years (same price for next 4 yrs)- this excludes micro-markets and special situations. In stock mkt- I expect big rally in next few mths and then a decent correction for 6 months. Only stock specific approach to give returns. Not index or mutual funds.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 5 2017 06:24 PM
@manas30 What are your top picks in stock markets ?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manas30
On: July 5 2017 06:40 PM
[QUOTE=sbajaj;n2530407]@manas30 What are your top picks in stock markets ?[/QUOTE] I will not disclose my picks in a public forum for the simple reason that layman investors will copy and invest in those stocks. Those stocks may/may not perform- I may sell my todays stocks to buy better opportunities 2 mths from now. But, those investors will keep holding those stocks. Now, my portfolio will then still double, while the stocks that i disclose today may go down. Today, stock mkt is very volatile and stocks are violently reacting to quarterly results, while index is lazying around. so, one needs to be quick and sharp. What I don't like in this mkt- I don't like pharma and IT. They may have low downside, but I am here for upside. not for 15% annual returns.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 5 2017 06:47 PM
[QUOTE=manas30;n2530416] I will not disclose my picks in a public forum for the simple reason that layman investors will copy and invest in those stocks. Those stocks may/may not perform- I may sell my todays stocks to buy better opportunities 2 mths from now. But, those investors will keep holding those stocks. Now, my portfolio will then still double, while the stocks that i disclose today may go down. Today, stock mkt is very volatile and stocks are violently reacting to quarterly results, while index is lazying around. so, one needs to be quick and sharp. What I don't like in this mkt- I don't like pharma and IT. They may have low downside, but I am here for upside. not for 15% annual returns.[/QUOTE] I think you are new here and underestimating the janta of IREF. Just to give you a taste - visit few pages of the link below where we all share such stuff. [url]https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations/page1841[/url] We all are mature enough and do our own analysis before investing....It's always good to hear what is the rationale behind picking certain stock at one point of time from someone / anyone. rest is upto you.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manas30
On: July 5 2017 06:53 PM
deleted
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manas30
On: July 5 2017 06:55 PM
[QUOTE=sbajaj;n2530418] I think you are new here and underestimating the janta of IREF. Just to give you a taste - visit few pages of the link below where we all share such stuff. [URL="https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations/page1841"]https://www.indianrealestateforum.co...tions/page1841[/URL] We all are mature enough and do our own analysis before investing....It's always good to hear what is the rationale behind picking certain stock at one point of time from someone / anyone. rest is upto you.[/QUOTE] [COLOR=#545454][FONT="]"Stock Market is only for the punters and only guys with inside info make money. Retail investors are left holding the can.. pretty much same with RE. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#545454][FONT="]People only talk of the good things. How come no one talks about Sintex which lost close to 80% in last 3 months. Or Reliance ADA group .. Or Kingfisher airlines. Coal India is at IPO price after 7 years. DLF, Purvankara, Brigade – the great RE guys – have lost 80-90% of their peak value. If you had these stocks, you would have been burnt. "[/FONT][/COLOR] [url]https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/bangalore-real-estate/55580-the-impact-of-it-slowdown-on-real-estate-markets-in-bengaluru-hyderabad-pune/page695[/url] This guy thinks Sintex fell 80% in 3 mths. am ROFL. Infact, most ppl here would be like him only!
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 5 2017 07:17 PM
[QUOTE=manas30;n2530423] [COLOR=#545454][FONT="]"Stock Market is only for the punters and only guys with inside info make money. Retail investors are left holding the can.. pretty much same with RE. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#545454][FONT="]People only talk of the good things. How come no one talks about Sintex which lost close to 80% in last 3 months. Or Reliance ADA group .. Or Kingfisher airlines. Coal India is at IPO price after 7 years. DLF, Purvankara, Brigade – the great RE guys – have lost 80-90% of their peak value. If you had these stocks, you would have been burnt. "[/FONT][/COLOR] [url]https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/bangalore-real-estate/55580-the-impact-of-it-slowdown-on-real-estate-markets-in-bengaluru-hyderabad-pune/page695[/url] This guy thinks Sintex fell 80% in 3 mths. am ROFL. Infact, most ppl here would be like him only![/QUOTE] Don't have much to add but try to visit pune forum - The link i posted.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 5 2017 08:38 PM
[QUOTE=manas30;n2530383] [U][B]Peace Guys![/B][/U] Let me explain the divergence of views here- Both stock mkt and Real estate have an average index and individual stocks/locations. [U][B]1. Real estate[/B][/U] On an average real estate has [B]given below par returns from 2013-17. [/B]Many areas it is almost at same price o[B]r slightly down.[/B]However, there are local micromarkets- like [B]Varanasi, Some coorg farmland [/B]etc. etc. , may be some places near new airports- where[B] land prices are 3x in the same period[/B]. Most people have invested in flats in NCR, Bangalore which haven't gone up (as [B]flats depreciate with time)- while Humblefool is invested in land- which has done still okiesh. [/B]So, it is natural that most people don't agree with views of Humblefool. Now, on an average real estate did very well from 2003-2012- so whether it was flat, or land, it went up many times in most of the places. - Now, coming to the future. The fact is in 2003- our land/flat prices were a fraction of prices in USA/EU. Now, we are at PAR. So, going forward, it is almost impossible to get similar returns. However, returns in micro-markets/special areas is still possible as I mentioned above. [B]2. Stock mkt[/B] Some thing similar happened in stock mkt- from 2003-2007- sensex went up 4x, and most portfolios and stocks went up many times. However, from 2007-2017, the return in index is only 50%- that is again below inflation (like real estate) But, here again, there are many stocks that went 100x in 2007-2017- there is Ajanta pharma, MRF, Cupid, and many others. Personally, I am all in the stock mkt. Invested from 2012. My networth has exploded from 80 lakhs to 8 crores in last 5 yrs. Overall, the index hasn't done anything, but individual stocks have multiplied like anything. Even in last 3 mths, you will find many stocks that doubled in just 3 mths. From 2003-07, it was easy money- in both real estate and stock mkt- land/flat/stocks/mutual funds- all went up many times- most of them. Right now, it is pretty tough to make money. You need to have extra information. Get a land deal at distress valuation. Make flats- sell them. Or, in stock mkt- identify stocks before market recognizes them. [B]Can you double your money in next 2 years- Yes, in both stock mkt and real estate. But 99% investors will not be able to do it. Only the smart ones. There is no easy money and easy returns like that of 2003-07 any more guys. Get real![/B] There are people like Humblefool that will continue to make money in real estate and like me who will continue to make money in stock market- Irrespective of the index/average investor Going forward, I expect real estate to continue with time correction for next 3-4 years (same price for next 4 yrs)- this excludes micro-markets and special situations. In stock mkt- I expect big rally in next few mths and then a decent correction for 6 months. Only stock specific approach to give returns. Not index or mutual funds.[/QUOTE] Good that someone else also thinks that both stocks and RE are good for wealth generation, but only selective picking, not blind investment into anything as earlier.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: manas30
On: July 5 2017 08:55 PM
[QUOTE=manas30;n2530383] [U][B]Peace Guys![/B][/U] Let me explain the divergence of views here- Both stock mkt and Real estate have an average index and individual stocks/locations. [U][B]1. Real estate[/B][/U] On an average real estate has [B]given below par returns from 2013-17. [/B]Many areas it is almost at same price o[B]r slightly down.[/B]However, there are local micromarkets- like [B]Varanasi, Some coorg farmland [/B]etc. etc. , may be some places near new airports- where[B] land prices are 3x in the same period[/B]. Most people have invested in flats in NCR, Bangalore which haven't gone up (as [B]flats depreciate with time)- while Humblefool is invested in land- which has done still okiesh. [/B]So, it is natural that most people don't agree with views of Humblefool. Now, on an average real estate did very well from 2003-2012- so whether it was flat, or land, it went up many times in most of the places. - Now, coming to the future. The fact is in 2003- our land/flat prices were a fraction of prices in USA/EU. Now, we are at PAR. So, going forward, it is almost impossible to get similar returns. However, returns in micro-markets/special areas is still possible as I mentioned above. [B]2. Stock mkt[/B] Some thing similar happened in stock mkt- from 2003-2007- sensex went up 4x, and most portfolios and stocks went up many times. However, from 2007-2017, the return in index is only 50%- that is again below inflation (like real estate) But, here again, there are many stocks that went 100x in 2007-2017- there is Ajanta pharma, MRF, Cupid, and many others. Personally, I am all in the stock mkt. Invested from 2012. My networth has exploded from 80 lakhs to 8 crores in last 5 yrs. Overall, the index hasn't done anything, but individual stocks have multiplied like anything. Even in last 3 mths, you will find many stocks that doubled in just 3 mths. From 2003-07, it was easy money- in both real estate and stock mkt- land/flat/stocks/mutual funds- all went up many times- most of them. Right now, it is pretty tough to make money. You need to have extra information. Get a land deal at distress valuation. Make flats- sell them. Or, in stock mkt- identify stocks before market recognizes them. [B]Can you double your money in next 2 years- Yes, in both stock mkt and real estate. But 99% investors will not be able to do it. Only the smart ones. There is no easy money and easy returns like that of 2003-07 any more guys. Get real![/B] There are people like Humblefool that will continue to make money in real estate and like me who will continue to make money in stock market- Irrespective of the index/average investor Going forward, I expect real estate to continue with time correction for next 3-4 years (same price for next 4 yrs)- this excludes micro-markets and special situations. In stock mkt- I expect big rally in next few mths and then a decent correction for 6 months. Only stock specific approach to give returns. Not index or mutual funds.[/QUOTE] So, net net my advise for layman retail investor is- [B]1) Do NOT invest in real estate[/B] (unless u r smarter than the rest and know which area will have next airport, before other people know). Future 5-8 yr returns from 99% of real estate investors is likely to be below inflation. Micro-markets (like varanasi) may give 3x returns. So, you need to know which small city out of 1000 cities will out-perform. I don't. Period. [B]2) Consider buying a flat as an expense, not an investment- [/B]I have 8 cr stock portfolio, but haven't bought any flat yet. Reason- I can't afford a 2 cr expense. Spending 2 cr is very expensive for me. I simply can't afford it. I am living on rent. Assume that flat value will be worth nothing in 40 yrs time. [B]3) Stock mkt- SIP in mutual fund to get mediocre 12-15% returns- [/B]Don't invest in direct stocks unless u understand stk mkt and sectors/stocks in depth[B]. HALF knowledge is worse than no knowledge. [/B]However, note that this is a skill that can be learned and if you are able to do so, you can easily grow money at 25% cagr for 10 yrs- which means [B]10x in 10 years-[/B] even if the index gives 7% cagr. Also, remember [B]Long term capital gain tax (1 year) in stocks is ZERO[/B] There is no free lunch in today's market. Please don't fall prey to LIC and Bajaj policies- Child/retirement plans- they become rich due to these plans, NOT YOU.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: flatowner2
On: July 6 2017 12:12 AM
Housing sales fell by 41 per cent during January-May period of 2017 at 1.10 lakh units across 42 major cities as property demand continued to be sluggish post demonetisation, [FONT=arial] The real estate market is facing a multi-year slowdown [FONT=arial]Read more at: [URL]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/59409154.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst[/URL][/FONT] [/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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