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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Real Estate Bubble Set to Burst Again in India" by MANOJa, there have been 20 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was ggnhomeowner.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: PappuPilot
On: July 19 2017 08:05 AM
[QUOTE=ggnhomeowner;n2535539]When I told all the people here that one can make good money, most just didn't want to hear that, since they had lost money earlier. Some did ask in private messages, and they would be laughing too at the rest of the people who were so adamant that money can't be made in real estate in Gurgaon. See the news today. [B]The SPR is opening up. Golf Course & Extension road might stagnate/fall as a result of this. Sohna might stagnate/fall too due to this.[/B] There is some upside still for this area. So for the people who are content with 15-20% gains, this area might give those kind of returns. Within Gurgaon though there are places/projects which I expect will give much much higher returns than even this. [url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/spr-finally-nears-finish-line-realty-hopes-soar/articleshow/59640158.cms[/url] [/QUOTE] Why do you think GCX and Sohna rate fall due to SPR coming?? Also, there is already a 7 km road being built connecting GCX to South-Gurgaon (at least that's what builders like Central-Park around this area are claiming, and I have seen the partial road from Pioneer project on GCX which will be extended).
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 19 2017 01:01 PM
[FONT=lucida sans unicode]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/rs-7000-cr-gone-in-30-mins-lic-takes-biggest-hit-in-itcs-free-fall/articleshow/59644199.cms 8150 crore gone is a single day. A net of 60000 crore across. Only a coming sign of what MFs will suffer in the next crash. I can already see life long savings and generation wealth being wiped out overnight. [/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: spectre
On: July 19 2017 01:29 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536040][FONT=lucida sans unicode]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/rs-7000-cr-gone-in-30-mins-lic-takes-biggest-hit-in-itcs-free-fall/articleshow/59644199.cms 8150 crore gone is a single day. A net of 60000 crore across. Only a coming sign of what MFs will suffer in the next crash. I can already see life long savings and generation wealth being wiped out overnight. [/FONT][/QUOTE] You are simply too good :) ITC was 286.4 on May 19, 2017 and today on July 19, 2017 it is 290.1! So I guess you meant 2 months gain instead of "life long savings and generation wealth being wiped out overnight". RE generation too will witness panic someday, by laws of economics.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: shalumani
On: July 19 2017 01:35 PM
[QUOTE=spectre;n2536047] You are simply too good :) ITC was 286.4 on May 19, 2017 and today on July 19, 2017 it is 290.1! So I guess you meant 2 months gain instead of "life long savings and generation wealth being wiped out overnight". RE generation too will witness panic someday, by laws of economics.[/QUOTE] Free advice is free for a reason. If the advice actually made sense, people would pay for it.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 19 2017 01:47 PM
[QUOTE=spectre;n2536047] You are simply too good :) ITC was 286.4 on May 19, 2017 and today on July 19, 2017 it is 290.1! So I guess you meant 2 months gain instead of "life long savings and generation wealth being wiped out overnight". RE generation too will witness panic someday, by laws of economics.[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]But my dearest sir! :) [/FONT][FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]People who don't have the patience to wait in RE, won't have the patience to wait in MFs either. Note people in this forum measure returns in nanoseconds(That includes you too).[/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: spectre
On: July 19 2017 02:02 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536058] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]But my dearest sir! :) [/FONT][FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]People who don't have the patience to wait in RE, won't have the patience to wait in MFs either. Note people in this forum measure returns in nanoseconds(That includes you too).[/FONT][/QUOTE] So by your own admission, there are ways to get returns in nanoseconds and that is not RE! Going by latest trends, big builders are claiming that they are giving "price benefits" or "prices slashed across projects", so return is in negative territory (be it nano seconds or a year)! Actually all RE prices should be measured with base price 2003! I love this "set your own goalpost"! :)
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: Dkumar12
On: July 19 2017 03:02 PM
[USER="195423"]humblefool[/USER] is too much :-) He is like whatever happens on earth, use it as a occasion to buy property..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: satham
On: July 19 2017 03:22 PM
[QUOTE=ggnhomeowner;n2535539]When I told all the people here that one can make good money, most just didn't want to hear that, since they had lost money earlier. Some did ask in private messages, and they would be laughing too at the rest of the people who were so adamant that money can't be made in real estate in Gurgaon. See the news today. The SPR is opening up. Golf Course & Extension road might stagnate/fall as a result of this. Sohna might stagnate/fall too due to this. There is some upside still for this area. So for the people who are content with 15-20% gains, this area might give those kind of returns. Within Gurgaon though there are places/projects which I expect will give much much higher returns than even this. [url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/spr-finally-nears-finish-line-realty-hopes-soar/articleshow/59640158.cms[/url] [/QUOTE] SPR opening up is another big infra development. and steadily , many such long due infra improvements are finally happening in gurgaon . if you have noticed, another road parallel to GCX ( near victory valley ) is also made operational , razing the farmhouse in the way . However, I doubt SPR prices will jump 20 % due to this, when a 16 lane road with underpasses cudnt help prevent prices from falling on Golf course road ! And why wud Golf course road fall due to SPR opening up ? No correlation .
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 19 2017 03:36 PM
[QUOTE=spectre;n2536061] So by your own admission, there are ways to get returns in nanoseconds and that is not RE! Going by latest trends, big builders are claiming that they are giving "price benefits" or "prices slashed across projects", so return is in negative territory (be it nano seconds or a year)! Actually all RE prices should be measured with base price 2003! I love this "set your own goalpost"! :)[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Look man, its not even that hard to understand. Set A : People who bought ITC stock(s) 1 day before the crash at price x Set B : People who will sell ITC stock(s) 1 day after till the day price x + k + i (to account for inflation(k) and opportunity expense(i)) (Set A) ∩ (Set B) are people who have made a loss and will. Largely because of the nature of stock transactions, these people are forced to sell these stocks to invest elsewhere. Most people in a forum like these don't have a spread so large, so a loss means for all practical purposes a permanent loss. Note even during the heights of demonetization which literally removed cash from the very hands of people didn't create this scenario in RE. People have and always need homes to stay. RE so far has successfully weathered even the most brutal stress test. Total absence of money couldn't bring down prices.[/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: polo1234
On: July 19 2017 03:42 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536089] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Look man, its not even that hard to understand. Set A : People who bought ITC stock(s) 1 day before the crash at price x Set B : People who will sell ITC stock(s) 1 day after till the day price x + k + i (to account for inflation(k) and opportunity expense(i)) (Set A) ∩ (Set B) are people who have made a loss and will. Largely because of the nature of stock transactions, these people are forced to sell these stocks to invest elsewhere. Most people in a forum like these don't have a spread so large, so a loss means for all practical purposes a permanent loss. Note even during the heights of demonetization which literally removed cash from the very hands of people didn't create this scenario in RE. People have and always need homes to stay. RE so far has successfully weathered even the most brutal stress test. Total absence of money couldn't bring down prices.[/FONT][/QUOTE] And that is why you do not invest in one single stock but a bunch of them. Lets say you have 20 stock so ITC =5% of portfolio . so this will like 5%*15% = 0.75% of your portfolio . Could be easily made up by today rise in index itself In stock investing , you are bound to see losses on some of the stocks, while you see profit on others . Its the portfolio returns that count PS : I understand that you are bullish on RE , what I don't understand that why you keep trying to pull down Equity, to the extent of mocking equity investors.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 19 2017 04:20 PM
[QUOTE=polo1234;n2536090] And that is why you do not invest in one single stock but a bunch of them. Lets say you have 20 stock so ITC =5% of portfolio . so this will like 5%*15% = 0.75% of your portfolio . Could be easily made up by today rise in index itself In stock investing , you are bound to see losses on some of the stocks, while you see profit on others . Its the portfolio returns that count PS : I understand that you are bullish on RE , what I don't understand that why you keep trying to pull down Equity, to the extent of mocking equity investors.[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Even with that kind of spread this could happen to you in case of a decent enough crash. For people us, 'diversification' is largely a fallacy. Diversification largely works only if your scale nearly matches that of the whole market itself. And even in that case, you are only protected against a individual stock crash, not the market as a whole. The real issues for stock people should be that their market even till date isn't tied to any fundamental need of the bulk of the population in India. So therefore any damage to the stock market barely dents anything else, as bulk of our people are on the informal sector, and even if they aren't most business aren't listed. Your portfolio as a individual investor will never be large enough to cover for even a medium level crisis and within a MF if you are a large investor you are largely paying for the common fund. Its not like they give you extra returns if you pay extra. Those who invest 5 lacs have little to lose, those who invest 5 crores have a lot more. [/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: spectre
On: July 19 2017 05:06 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536089] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Look man, its not even that hard to understand. Set A : People who bought ITC stock(s) 1 day before the crash at price x Set B : People who will sell ITC stock(s) 1 day after till the day price x + k + i (to account for inflation(k) and opportunity expense(i)) (Set A) ∩ (Set B) are people who have made a loss and will. Largely because of the nature of stock transactions, these people are forced to sell these stocks to invest elsewhere. Most people in a forum like these don't have a spread so large, so a loss means for all practical purposes a permanent loss. Note even during the heights of demonetization which literally removed cash from the very hands of people didn't create this scenario in RE. People have and always need homes to stay. RE so far has successfully weathered even the most brutal stress test. Total absence of money couldn't bring down prices.[/FONT][/QUOTE] :) Let's say someone really lost badly on ITC by being in (Set A) ∩ (Set B). Loss was around 13%. They were left with some money, as price never reached 0. If they invested the same today in Auro** Phar*, they could have earned nearly 8% between day's start and day's high! So significant loss can be contained within a day! I'll not be surprised if ITC makes up losses in few weeks! Demonetization, RERA, affordable housing, GST etc, in fact all govt policies changes, show slow and durable effect. Effect is visible already but not so significant yet. While it is true that people need homes to stay, but they won't buy unless that is affordable (or they consider value for money) to them. Your claim is also not true that money was totally absent. If that was the case, people would have faulted in paying EMIs, in large scale :)
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: polo1234
On: July 19 2017 05:27 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536110] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Even with that kind of spread this could happen to you in case of a decent enough crash. For people us, 'diversification' is largely a fallacy. [B]A single MF give you exposure to a large number of stock - there is your diversification . Ready made for you. Lack of diversification is a huge issue in RE . You put pretty much all your money in one project and if it fails , you are doomed . [/B] Diversification largely works only if your scale nearly matches that of the whole market itself. [B]Diversification is available at every scale . You have 100 rs - buy Nifty Index ETF ( NIFTYIWIN - CMP 100.xx) - your 100 rs is now spread over the 50 stocks that constitute the NIFTY 50 . On the other hand RE requires large amount to money to even start investing - even larger to diversify[/B] And even in that case, you are only protected against a individual stock crash, not the market as a whole. [B]Of course . Diversification takes care of the unsystematic risk, systematic risk still persists. Its that risk which gives you return . And this risk is their in RE also .. the market can fall . Or do you think that RE prices never go down ?[/B] The real issues for stock people should be that their market even till date isn't tied to any fundamental need of the bulk of the population in India. [B]Market is tied to one fundamental - earnings . And yes people might not need stocks as a need; but they need goods and services , which come from companies , whose ownership is tied to stock holdings. Nobody dies trying to buy apple stock but they do stand in line for hours to buy apple phone - which translates into profit for apple stock owner And by your logic ,gold is completely useless ,their is absolutely no utility need for it. But you do suggest gold holdings, don't you?[/B] So therefore any damage to the stock market barely dents anything else, as bulk of our people are on the informal sector, and even if they aren't most business aren't listed. [B]Irrelevant point[/B] Your portfolio as a individual investor will never be large enough to cover for even a medium level crisis and within a MF if you are a large investor you are largely paying for the common fund. Its not like they give you extra returns if you pay extra. Those who invest 5 lacs have little to lose, those who invest 5 crores have a lot more [B]Not sure of your point here - Portfolio size has no relation to covering for crisis . But yes , if you sense an opportunity or crisis, its much quicker to move into or out of equity then RE . If RE you can be saddled with a useless property unable to sell it for months or even year[/B][/FONT] [/QUOTE] As I have said earlier - you distrust financial assets and the distrust is effecting your judgement . Or your success with RE has blinded you to the how the equity market works - it is simply easier for you to put equity away with a wave of hand And btw - have you never met anybody who lost money in RE? Regards
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: TruthSeeker1
On: July 19 2017 07:01 PM
[B]" Banks are likely to take a haircut of Rs2.4 trillion, or nearly 60%, to resolve 50 large stressed accounts, said a Crisil report on Wednesday. These 50 companies are from the metals (30% of total debt), construction (25%) and power (15%) sectors, and account for half of the Rs8 trillion non -performing assets (NPAs) in the banking system as on 31 March 2017. Banks may have to take a haircut of 60%, worth Rs2.4 trillion, to settle 50 large stressed assets with debt of Rs 4 lakh crore," the rating agency said. The haircuts have been classified into four categories – marginal (less than 25%), moderate (25-50%), aggressive (50-75%) and deep (more than 75%). "[/B] Future lending outlook is rather bleak..... When they say banks need to take hair took they essentially means most of the current and future tax money will go into fixing the bad loans with little to no capital spending... The provisions are so huge the the gov allocation/ infusion to banks is not eve remotely sufficient... With companies challenging bankruptcy in courts and knowing the efficiency of our judiciary it can be easily expected that nothing will be done about this crisis till elections... They will kick the can hard... The cooling down of inflation(credit creation) is clear sign that bank are in a big big mess... They don't know were to lend so they have been gobbling up gov bonds... This does not bode well for the Indian business in need of capital... Its rather laughable that stock market is at all time high when the credit situation is this bad... Higher interest rates are around the corner... Brace for impact we are bus with no breaks...
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: JoBhiMain
On: July 19 2017 07:26 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2536110] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Even with that kind of spread this could happen to you in case of a decent enough crash. For people us, 'diversification' is largely a fallacy. Diversification largely works only if your scale nearly matches that of the whole market itself. And even in that case, you are only protected against a individual stock crash, not the market as a whole. The real issues for stock people should be that their market even till date isn't tied to any fundamental need of the bulk of the population in India. So therefore any damage to the stock market barely dents anything else, as bulk of our people are on the informal sector, and even if they aren't most business aren't listed. Your portfolio as a individual investor will never be large enough to cover for even a medium level crisis and within a MF if you are a large investor you are largely paying for the common fund. Its not like they give you extra returns if you pay extra. Those who invest 5 lacs have little to lose, those who invest 5 crores have a lot more. [/FONT][/QUOTE] 20 stocks -> no diversification; it's a fallacy 1 or 2 RE properties -> no risk.. life ban gayi.. utha le re baba; utha le..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: southsea
On: July 19 2017 10:21 PM
[QUOTE=JoBhiMain;n2536169] 20 stocks -> no diversification; it's a fallacy 1 or 2 RE properties -> no risk.. life ban gayi.. utha le re baba; utha le.. [/QUOTE] Plus the leverage in RE can makes things worse. Your net worth can actually be negative. I suspect many who bought homes at the height of the euphoria in 2011-2012 are now sitting on negative equity.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: shalumani
On: July 19 2017 10:25 PM
[QUOTE=JoBhiMain;n2536169] 20 stocks -> no diversification; it's a fallacy 1 or 2 RE properties -> no risk.. life ban gayi.. utha le re baba; utha le.. [/QUOTE] LOL..very nicely put
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: southsea
On: July 19 2017 10:28 PM
[url]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/07/18/almost/[/url] - "[I]Remember those yesterday stats breathlessly shared with you showing the fastest-ever 90-day plop in Toronto house prices? Well, forget it. That 14.2% plunge was incorrect. Or at least stale. According to the internal numbers the real estate board doesn't really want you to know, the situation has changed. Naturally, it's worse. The average GTA property was worth $919,589 in April – the most ever. But by July 13th that had declined to $755,727, for a rout of almost 18%[/I]. " In every bubble people peddle all sorts of theories as to why this time is different and why prices are on a one way upward slope. In Canada it was the 'foreigners buying up everything' and how more people are moving into the cities. Did not prevent the bust there. Here we have variants ranging from black money to builder mafia to population. Those too did not stop land and apartment prices from falling in NCR. And near stagnation in the rest of the country despite inflation of about 7-8% in the last 3-4 years.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 19 2017 11:42 PM
[QUOTE=PappuPilot;n2535955] Why do you think GCX and Sohna rate fall due to SPR coming?? Also, there is already a 7 km road being built connecting GCX to South-Gurgaon (at least that's what builders like Central-Park around this area are claiming, and I have seen the partial road from Pioneer project on GCX which will be extended). [/QUOTE] Its more than 13kms to that place, how can a 7km road help? Central Park also claimed a 16.5km elevated road, turned out to be only 6.5kms. SPR area had huge connectivity issues, couldn't get past the Ambedkar statue easily. Now with it gone, the road/junction will get widened and proper access will be there. So all the way to DLF corporate park, it will be an easy drive. The main sector roads held up will be coming too, isolated patches that hadn't been made are getting done. A lot of the inventory there wasn't finding takers, due to lack of proper connectivity. There are fairly decent projects in this area which did not have many takers. Now all these will be accessible soon. GCX has too much inventory overhang. I would say around 4000 apartments of IREO, M3M etc remain unsold. There are daily traffic jams on the GCX Rd. With SPR so close and opening up, don't see much reason for any upside in GCX area anymore. Sohna is too far. The prices in SPR area are not too much more. So why would people want to drive almost 15kms to get to Sohna (which is not Gurgaon), when they have plenty of options in SPR area.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 19 2017 11:50 PM
[QUOTE=satham;n2536082] SPR opening up is another big infra development. and steadily , many such long due infra improvements are finally happening in gurgaon . if you have noticed, another road parallel to GCX ( near victory valley ) is also made operational , razing the farmhouse in the way . However, I doubt SPR prices will jump 20 % due to this, when a 16 lane road with underpasses cudnt help prevent prices from falling on Golf course road ! And why wud Golf course road fall due to SPR opening up ? No correlation . [/QUOTE] Golf Course road would at best stagnate. The prices fell there, as they had run up too much, and the construction quality just wasn't good enough to keep up with it. So people started looking at different options rather than spending so much on these. GCX some projects might stagnate, and others will fall further. SPR prices in some projects are already up 15-25% in the last 6-8 months.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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