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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations" by pcpune, there have been 27 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was ashish18.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 06:00 AM
FII F&O Stats As on 12 JULY'17(in crs) Net SELL : - 1185 [B]Index Future : - 1286[/B] Index Option : - 135 [B]Stock Future : + 202[/B] Stock Option : + 35 Prov Figs As on 12 JULY'17(in crs) FII/FPI : + 361.25 (4562.89 - 4201.64 ) DII : - 330.58 (2603.71 - 2934.29) Short covering still going on by FII .. SGXNifty hits 9880 .. 9900 coming up on Nifty, may be today itself. .. [B]Once all short covering is done : prepare for the big crash ..: [/B] Long term investors : Start booking your profits when Nifty hits 9900, 10K where ever you see fit & sit tight in cash .. note : Nifty can hit 11K or 11500 before crashing, don't try to time it. My estimate of 10K is on a low base calculation of 10,000 crores worth of put position out of 40,000 crores in pnotes..
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Posted by: Sharpj
On: July 13 2017 10:49 AM
C'mon dude, this kind of left liberal fear mongering is really bothersome.. There is no limit to the imagination.. Imagine a meteor hitting the earth and everyone dies.. so let us all enjoy today and spend all the money.. Everything is uncertain.. and prodding through this uncertainty is life.. the only certain thing is death and who cares what happens after.. [QUOTE=TruthSeeker1;n2533307] that is the problem... they will pay you back in worthless currency... Imagine a Venezuelan.. Brazil kind of situation and you are holding those bonds..... they are worth a big zero.... what if gov says we are temporarily suspending redemption after the ridiculous 6-8 year lock in period and gold hits a $3000... saying you can only get them after 5 more years ?... or what if gov fixed price of gold... ? like they fix price of movie tickets ? what are you going to do...? they already fixed it higher than market price while issuing what makes you think they wont fix it lower than market price while redemption ? Gold is owned for liquidity...those bonds are not even remotely close to being gold... [/QUOTE]
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Posted by: Sharpj
On: July 13 2017 11:13 AM
[USER="126676"]neokewl[/USER] When the big crash happens do you know what levels it will fall to and .. What is big and will it be big in relation to the 10K levels.. How long will be crash last or will it remain permanently down.. Any ideas? [QUOTE=neokewl;n2533400]FII F&O Stats As on 12 JULY'17(in crs) Net SELL : - 1185 [B]Index Future : - 1286[/B] Index Option : - 135 [B]Stock Future : + 202[/B] Stock Option : + 35 Prov Figs As on 12 JULY'17(in crs) FII/FPI : + 361.25 (4562.89 - 4201.64 ) DII : - 330.58 (2603.71 - 2934.29) Short covering still going on by FII .. SGXNifty hits 9880 .. 9900 coming up on Nifty, may be today itself. .. [B]Once all short covering is done : prepare for the big crash ..: [/B] Long term investors : Start booking your profits when Nifty hits 9900, 10K where ever you see fit & sit tight in cash .. note : Nifty can hit 11K or 11500 before crashing, don't try to time it. My estimate of 10K is on a low base calculation of 10,000 crores worth of put position out of 40,000 crores in pnotes.. [/QUOTE]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 13 2017 11:14 AM
[QUOTE=TruthSeeker1;n2533274] you do know that gold bond scheme is utter failure right ? no one putting any money in that garbage locking up you money for 8 years... when they launched those gold bonds they were priced higher than market price of gold... almost 5% higher... jata ko bevkoof samajh ke raha hai kya...? look at GOLD imports ... they have hit a five year high... no one believe this stupid gov and and their stupid bonds... about us benefiting from low crude i have already posted here about how our gov deficit is out of control.... we are living on borrowed time... there is no doubt some one benefited from low crude but its definitely not the Indian consumer who is having to pay 57% tax so gov employees can get pay hikes, inflated pensions etc .... emperor is naked[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Not sure why people have so many expectations from this particular government. Or any government. Government is not father, god or some higher power. These are just normal people living normal lives, worried more about their own life than you. We need to worry about ours. Why do people expect any government to make it up to them?[/FONT]
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Posted by: humblefool
On: July 13 2017 11:19 AM
[QUOTE=TruthSeeker1;n2533336] while this might be peanutes gov has whole lot of other liability ... they have bond holder to satisfy, pensioners to satisfy, foreign creditors , gov employees to satisfy... etc the gold bond holders don't represent huge majority so its easier to screw them and get away... [/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]Same thing goes with stock market investors too. India is still largely a informal economy, and some time after IPO when the company raised and got its money, stock is largely a irrelevant thing whose loss affects only traders.[/FONT] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]Even if the market crashes, nobody cares about these investors. I remember during 2008, when some of my colleagues were going bonkers over the crash. We were like - "LOL, who cares?".[/FONT] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]And rightly so, why should anybody?[/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: manzb
On: July 13 2017 11:35 AM
[QUOTE=revhappy;n2533250]Awesome [USER="8660"]manzb[/USER] , it takes lots of guts to stick with such high allocation to equities when so many negative voices around from so called, London School of Economics experts. Regarding, Gold, I was just pondering, Indians and the Chinese are the biggest consumers of gold and both are also the most corrupt and have the most illicit wealth, so some link there black money and gold. Both Indian and Chinese govt want to curb corruption and gold consumption. Both have taken steps in this direction, but in different ways. These days central banks do coordinated action like they did in Sintra. How difficult would it be for Indian and Chinese govt to come together and curb gold ownership totally and make it plummet like stone? China has a dictatorship. India, till now was a democracy, now even Indian govt is moving slightly away from textbook democracy and they can do things that dont seem democratically correct, like demonetization for example. So this way, they can indeed make gold crash or never rise. Already people are saying developed countries are manipulating the price of gold. If India and China join, just imagine. The gold bonds by India are indeed naked short on gold. But they are not stupid. If they are shorting gold, they will win. Basically, dont fight the fed logic applies to dont fight the govts too. This time, it is not a pussy democracy like the previous one. Govts everywhere are getting very very strong. So you need to be smarter than just following "hoard gold and fiat currency will go kaput".[/QUOTE] My net asset allocation as of now is something like 50% or so in RE (my own home).. without considering the inherited property in native city 30% in stock+equity MF 20% in debt (PF, Superannuation, Gratuity, NPS etc) plus liquid cash awaiting market fall But if I consider only the liquid asset, I have already invested 90% in equity and less than 10% in cash. RE is the only laggard in last more than 3 years.. But as it is more of an expense rather than investment, I am fine, but on a NPV basis I am loosing big time with my own home. Luckily my intention to move to a bigger house was postponed despite the fact that I have managed to get rid of my RE investment in another flat in 2014.. If I would have been holding the other flat, I would have been loosing big time. But I would like to thank my stars that I managed to get rid of it at the right moment.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: Manoj2012
On: July 13 2017 11:36 AM
[h=1]Market expecting a rate cut down the line: UTI MF[/h] [h=2]Retail inflation has seen a sharp slowdown in June while May industrial output has come in at 1.7 percent. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Amandeep Chopra, Group President and Head of Fixed Income at UTI MF assesses the impact on the bond market. [SIZE=13px]Retail inflation has seen a sharp slowdown in June while May industrial output has come in at 1.7 percent.[/SIZE][/h] In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Amandeep Chopra, Group President and Head of Fixed Income at UTI MF assesses the impact on the bond market. �The 10-year will test the previous low of 6.41 in our view. Market is still digesting the inflation data,� he said. Fed's moderately dovish commentary is another trigger for the local market. We could see the 10-year yield head a little bit lower during the day, he believes. The market has started factoring in a moderately dovish commentary from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the August policy, hinting towards another rate cut, said Chopra. So, the market will start building in a very strong expectation of another rate cut down the line, he said.
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Posted by: manzb
On: July 13 2017 11:40 AM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2533483] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]Same thing goes with stock market investors too. India is still largely a informal economy, and some time after IPO when the company raised and got its money, stock is largely a irrelevant thing whose loss affects only traders.[/FONT] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]Even if the market crashes, nobody cares about these investors. I remember during 2008, when some of my colleagues were going bonkers over the crash. We were like - "LOL, who cares?".[/FONT] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]And rightly so, why should anybody?[/FONT][/QUOTE] Even my RE investment went down the cost price during the same period (bought at around 49 lacs in 2007 and the same flat was sold by the builder officially at less than 40 lacs after 1.5 years).. Even then others just said " LOL Who cares?" (incl your Govt) .. So whether RE or stock, if you loose money, others will only say that "who cares?". The best example is now, while RE sector is bleeding (huge debt, inventory and no sales), everyone is just enjoying including Govt who just ensured that only affordable housing gets their attention and all the investors are left behind as they think about the investors like "LOL, who cares?" :D
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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Posted by: humblefool
On: July 13 2017 11:46 AM
[QUOTE=manzb;n2533494] Even my RE investment went down the cost price during the same period (bought at around 49 lacs in 2007 and the same flat was sold by the builder officially at less than 40 lacs after 1.5 years).. Even then others just said " LOL Who cares?" (incl your Govt) .. So whether RE or stock, if you loose money, others will only say that "who cares?". The best example is now, while RE sector is bleeding (huge debt, inventory and no sales), everyone is just enjoying including Govt who just ensured that only affordable housing gets their attention and all the investors are left behind as they think about the investors like "LOL, who cares?" :D[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Except that RE holding periods are long, and things not only recover they give better returns. Besides that when a stock goes bust all you are left with are database records in a SQL db. In case of a RE crash(highly unlikely), you still have a physical asset you can hold as long as you like. I couldn't care less tomorrow if Mukesh Ambani begs on streets, the sun will rise and people will still need homes to stay. [/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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Posted by: revhappy
On: July 13 2017 11:52 AM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2533500] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Except that RE holding periods are long, and things not only recover they give better returns. Besides that when a stock goes bust all you are left with are database records in a SQL db. In case of a RE crash(highly unlikely), you still have a physical asset you can hold as long as you like. I couldn't care less tomorrow if Mukesh Ambani begs on streets, the sun will rise and people will still need homes to stay. [/FONT][/QUOTE] True people needs homes to stay. If RE was used only for that, I.e. for people to buy one home and stay, we would not have been in this mess of urban slums in India. People speculated that RE will become their ticket to wealth and bid it up so high, that now that logic of 'people need home to stay' doesn't hold any more. There are way too many slums in city now, most of them are vertical.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: Manoj2012
On: July 13 2017 11:55 AM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2533500] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Except that RE holding periods are long, and things not only recover they give better returns. Besides that when a stock goes bust all you are left with are database records in a SQL db. In case of a RE crash(highly unlikely), you still have a physical asset you can hold as long as you like. I couldn't care less tomorrow if Mukesh Ambani begs on streets, the sun will rise and people will still need homes to stay. [/FONT][/QUOTE] historically ....... stocks have beaten RE for very long holding period ...... selection of stock in equities and selection of location / project in RE are variables that every investor has to take care of .....
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: manzb
On: July 13 2017 12:27 PM
[QUOTE=humblefool;n2533500] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Except that RE holding periods are long, and things not only recover they give better returns. Besides that when a stock goes bust all you are left with are database records in a SQL db. In case of a RE crash(highly unlikely), you still have a physical asset you can hold as long as you like. I couldn't care less tomorrow if Mukesh Ambani begs on streets, the sun will rise and people will still need homes to stay. [/FONT][/QUOTE] Just google Campa Cola case.. Overnight Crores of worth of RE become zero.. You are not even aware.. Just FYI, few cases for you .. One of friend's father bought 5 plots outside Hyderabad few decades back.. So after few decades when they become prime. local Goons just took it over.. They finally manged to get hold of only.. 60% just given up.. his father is no more.. his son is no way interested in taking a fight with those local goons (being IIT/IIM) as he thinks that he will have more restless nights thinking about it.. I will cite another incident, one of my boss (head of the organisation) in 2004 was hugely bullish with RE, just put everything in RE plus the leverage (another IIM guy).. One huge plot of land in Noida and another investment in Mumbai.. Noida plot got into litigation, and last I heard that the developer lost the case. Similarly for the Mumbai building also went into issue with builder getting into wrong side of law.. finally he had one tiny flat which he just bought just as part of group buying in a small building in Navi Mumbai.. On top of it, in 2007 at the height of economic activities he did a even daring act of resigning just for a trivial issue (more of ego issue), and went to US.. in next within 1 year got the boot (2008 recession).. Since then he has been living in the Navi Mumbai flat and working as a kind of Freelance trainer .. and he has been travelling in Mumbai local.. Can't believe my eyes, here is guy who was President of the organisation with corner cabins a nd few Company cars, Luxury acco from company, finally ended up in such situation .. I somehow reached out to his old secretary who told me how all his multi-crore investment in RE went bust.. So my dear, no investment is safe.. so if Reliance can go bust, so is your RE, someone can find some irregularities even many decades down the line and make it illegal.. thus by making it's value zero.. But knowing you you will always find merits in RE and demerits in everything else.. I will go wherever I think has potential to make money.. so for now, it is not RE but stocks.. may be few years down the line it can again be RE.. Anyway, let's not discuss it further here as it is Stock related thread..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 02:30 PM
[QUOTE=Sharpj;n2533480][USER="126676"]neokewl[/USER] When the big crash happens do you know what levels it will fall to and .. What is big and will it be big in relation to the 10K levels.. How long will be crash last or will it remain permanently down.. Any ideas? [/QUOTE] it won't be permanently down.. i am expecting about 7000-7500 on the Nifty from the highs. this is like a 30-35% on Nifty itself. Fundamentally weak stocks should see a bigger fall : 50%+ Now RBI is under pressure to cut rates due to inflation data..If RBI comes in with a massive rate cut, things change. Lets see where this plays out.. As expected, we are almost at 9900 today :) .. high was 9894 i think
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Posted by: Hairpin
On: July 13 2017 03:50 PM
NIFTY50 touched PE of 25 today!
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 04:07 PM
Pay attention to the last para.. I think this guy from ICICI securities figures why markets have gone higher post SEBI directive "However, some market participants said that they don't expect the market to rise significantly [B]and that the gains in the last few trading sessions have been due to short covering and not due to any fundamental trigger. "[/B] What he fails to mention : 1) How the money is being rotated 2) What happens once short covering is complete. [url]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/nifty-path-to-10k-clear-cooling-inflation-paves-way-for-rate-cut/articleshow/59571540.cms[/url]
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Posted by: revhappy
On: July 13 2017 05:51 PM
Some gloom in Kanedda [url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-12/canada-serious-trouble-again-and-time-its-real[/url]
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Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 13 2017 06:07 PM
Doubled my bet on IDFC twins today. Have full faith in the Jockey called "Ajay Piramal". regards sbajaj
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Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 13 2017 06:41 PM
Hi everyone I am sure big crash is round the corner ( expecting in August ). If it happens and stocks goes down by 30-40-50% ....what should be your 3 best long term picks in that market ? Please try to name the stocks and if possible reason. regards sbajaj
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 06:44 PM
FII F&O Stats As on 13 JULY'17(in crs) Net BUY : + 2956 [B]Index Future : - 620[/B] Index Option : + 2364 [B]Stock Future : + 1192[/B] Stock Option : + 21 Prov Figs As on 13 JULY'17(in crs) FII/FPI : - 59.15 (5330.82 - 5389.97 ) DII : + 279.13 (3269.46 - 2990.33) The same routine continues from FII... Don't be short on Nifty index until short covering is complete
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 06:56 PM
[QUOTE=sbajaj;n2533724]Hi everyone I am sure big crash is round the corner ( expecting in August ). If it happens and stocks goes down by 30-40-50% ....what should be your 3 best long term picks in that market ? Please try to name the stocks and if possible reason. regards sbajaj [/QUOTE] best not time the crash.. A little simplistic view can be taken .. The day when FII stop pouring cash into Stock futures : liquidate all positions & sit in cash... One may miss a last leg of the run, but will be thanking for missing out later. Since Monday : Stock future in flow has been close to 4000-5000 crores. my picks : 1) MRF will be golden goose to pick up in a crash. rebound will be fast & aggressive 2) Banks in Bank Nifty : Kotak is my pick, ICICI, Canara or Axis is just fine... Those concerned about ICICI NPA : go for ICIC Prulife. 3) Capital First / Canfin homes / Reliance capital : NPA mess is not to deal with for CapF & CanFin homes
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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Posted by: sbajaj
On: July 13 2017 07:09 PM
[QUOTE=neokewl;n2533732] best not time the crash.. A little simplistic view can be taken .. The day when FII stop pouring cash into Stock futures : liquidate all positions & sit in cash... One may miss a last leg of the run, but will be thanking for missing out later. Since Monday : Stock future in flow has been close to 4000-5000 crores. my picks : 1) MRF will be golden goose to pick up in a crash. rebound will be fast & aggressive 2) Banks in Bank Nifty : Kotak is my pick, ICICI, Canara or Axis is just fine... Those concerned about ICICI NPA : go for ICIC Prulife. 3) Capital First / Canfin homes / Reliance capital : NPA mess is not to deal with for CapF & CanFin homes[/QUOTE] Thanks [USER="126676"]neokewl[/USER] I will be following you on IREF to take cue but i doubt i will sell anything ( very bad habit of investing only for long term no matter what ). I have added few from your top 3 in my watchlist ......will keep an eye on them. Thanks once again.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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Posted by: polo1234
On: July 13 2017 07:57 PM
[QUOTE=neokewl;n2533725]FII F&O Stats As on 13 JULY'17(in crs) Net BUY : + 2956 [B]Index Future : - 620[/B] Index Option : + 2364 [B]Stock Future : + 1192[/B] Stock Option : + 21 Prov Figs As on 13 JULY'17(in crs) FII/FPI : - 59.15 (5330.82 - 5389.97 ) DII : + 279.13 (3269.46 - 2990.33) The same routine continues from FII... Don't be short on Nifty index until short covering is complete[/QUOTE] If they are selling index future - is that actually taking short position , how is that short covering
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 13 2017 10:13 PM
[QUOTE=polo1234;n2533741] If they are selling index future - is that actually taking short position , how is that short covering[/QUOTE] its rotation of money from index futures into stock futures.. prior to SEBI directive huge shorts were built up in IT, pharma & PSU banks .. SEBI has basically told: 1) buy the equivalent stocks on 1:1 basis or 2) liquidate before maturity date or 2020 which ever comes first.. maturity date for most p notes is 1 month .. fresh money isn't coming in.. they are pulling out from index futures & covering up their stock specific shorts Both cases is drives the index short term. The fundamentals are very weak to support such a valuation.
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Posted by: southsea
On: July 13 2017 10:38 PM
>[FONT=trebuchet ms]I couldn't care less tomorrow if Mukesh Ambani begs on streets, the sun will rise and people will still need homes to stay. [/FONT] Yes, but they will need bricks and cement and tiles to build homes, clothes to wear, food to buy, electronics to consume and so on. All of which will be done by companies who will need to raise money on the markets. Detroit, the shining symbol of American manufacturing prowess as recently as 1995, now has homes that are sold for $3000. In the last 3-4 years it has seen a revival of sorts, but still way below its peak in the 1980s. Homes are useful if they provide access to livelihood/income. Otherwise their value and usefulness drops steeply.
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 14 2017 03:19 AM
for those who do not understand why Nifty rose close to 9900. please spend time reading this.. This guy nails what's happening.. He for some reason thinks most of short covering is done, me thinks it will go on till July expiry. [url]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/major-short-covering-done-in-last-2-days-yogesh-radke-edelweiss-securities/articleshow/59559637.cms[/url]
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Posted by: neokewl
On: July 14 2017 03:24 AM
[QUOTE=neokewl;n2533780] its rotation of money from index futures into stock futures.. prior to SEBI directive huge shorts were built up in IT, pharma & PSU banks .. SEBI has basically told: 1) buy the equivalent stocks on 1:1 basis or 2) liquidate before maturity date or 2020 which ever comes first.. maturity date for most p notes is 1 month .. fresh money isn't coming in.. they are pulling out from index futures & covering up their stock specific shorts Both cases is drives the index short term. The fundamentals are very weak to support such a valuation.[/QUOTE] Adding onto this : the pcr { put call ratio } has significantly increased from 1.25 { day when SEBI made its announcement } to 1.54 .. This puzzled me a bit, but the only explanation i could figure here was : Registered FII { SEBI rule doesn't apply to registered fii } have significantly increased their short positions. This is the closest you can get indicating a blood bath is coming post the short covering..
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/9993-indian-stock-advice-trading-strategies-trends-market-predictions-regulations
Posted by: ashish18
On: July 14 2017 04:48 AM
A short term trade opportunity. Nifty likely to touch 9838 on spot today.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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