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Dear ck.kislay,
You are subscribed to the thread "Real Estate Bubble Set to Burst Again in India" by MANOJa, there have been 20 post(s) to this thread, the last poster was sapvin82.
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
These following posts were made to the thread:
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: rohit_warren
On: July 6 2017 10:10 AM
heard that techM is laying off 20% of it's employees -
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 6 2017 10:29 AM
[QUOTE=flatowner2;n2530534]Housing sales fell by 41 per cent during January-May period of 2017 at 1.10 lakh units across 42 major cities as property demand continued to be sluggish post demonetisation, [FONT=arial]The real estate market is facing a multi-year slowdown [FONT=arial][B]Read more at:[/B] [URL="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/59409154.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst"]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst[/URL][/FONT][/FONT] [/QUOTE] Somehow people don't understand these headline grabbing news are quite hollow. I had a detailed discussion about this sometime back with a friend who has far more knowledge about all this. Since the developers haven't been launching many projects in the last 2-3 yrs,and now focussing on completion of the existing projects, the sales figures have to come down, since these sales figures are only of the primary sales and not the secondary sales or builder transfers. The sales figures are expected to come down even further in the next few months before starting to rise again once new projects start getting launched. Suppose a project had 100 units to sell when it was launched, then probably the best 50-60 units would have sold out fast. Then the slowdown came in due to the sentiments being negative for under construction properties. The sales of the remaining units slowed down, and happening at a lower pace. Some of the units sold earlier have been resold in the secondary market during the construction, but there is no record for this in the statistics, as builder cannot show the same flat having been sold again - imagine showing 200 flats shown for statistics (50 flats resold 4 times) whereas the project only has 100. Now there is no new project, so the sales figures come further down. Most of the people reading such reports think that sales are down, whereas the fact is that there is not much left to sell that is reportable for these statistics. A lot of people will end up holding on to buy till the project is complete since there is a huge trust deficit. Most of the units are availabl e in secondary market only, very few with the builder, especially if the project is good. We had gone to find some apartments in a project and the builder had only 9 units left with them to sell, whereas in another project closeby probably 25% of the units are still unsold as that project is not at all good. Same way as the stock markets, do not heed to the reports which just give a common picture, but instead focus on micro markets and good projects, and good money can be made.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: MANOJa
On: July 6 2017 11:08 AM
[h=1]Residential sales improve sequentially post demonetisation: Knight Frank India[/h] While sales across top eight cities during 2017's first half ended June is down 11% on year, it has risen by the same proportion when compared with July-December period that was marked by the demonetization shock[URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/author/479214943/kailash-babar"]Kailash Babar[/URL] | ET Bureau | Updated: July 05, 2017, 14:26 IST [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/mumbai"]MUMBAI[/URL]: [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/residential"]Residential[/URL] real estate sales, led by the performance of affordable [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/housing"]housing[/URL], is registering improvement in pace and has come out of the shadows of demonetization woes. However, it is yet to reach the [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/pre-demonetization"]pre-demonetization[/URL] levels. While sales across top eight cities during 2017's first half ended June is down 11% on year, it has risen by the same proportion when compared with July-December period that was marked by the demonetization shock, showed a [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/knight+frank+india"]Knight Frank India[/URL] report. Affordable housing has been outpacing other segments on account of the government's thrust on Housing For All, discounts on ready inventory and improved sentiments among buyers courtesy [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/rera"]RERA[/URL] has driven sales volumes on sequential basis. The first half of 2017 has witnessed the resurrection of affordable housing across India with 71% of the launches under the Rs 50 lakh price segment up from 52% during the same period last year. Property markets of National Capital Region, Kolkata, Pune and Ahmedabad have driven the revival of affordable housing projects with around 80% of launches in these cities in the sub Rs 50 lakh segment. Following the government's demonetization announcement, there were signs of extreme caution by buyers, while real estate developers also refrained from announcing any new launches during this period. Although the market may not soon move closer to the levels seen almost three years ago since when it has been in a slumber, the improvement in sales numbers is robust, experts said. However, on annual basis, the performance of residential real estate, both in terms of launches and sales continues to be down. Residential launches have come to a grinding halt and have declined 41% to its seven-year low. This was attributed to hangover of demonetization in January and February, while launches were hit in May and June own account of RERA compliance. Sales volume is also down 11% from a year ago and is lowest first-half sales in the past five years. "Some of the most path-breaking reforms in independent India came to force in quick succession over a span of a few months. Described by many as the battery of reforms against the black economy in an unorganised sector, brave policy decisions such as demonetisation, the Real Estate (Regulations and Development) Act, 2016, the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act, 2016 and the recently rolled out Goods and Services Tax Act (GST) have time and again pushed the already sluggish residential market to the brink," said Shishir Baijal, CMD, Knight Frank India. However, he believes that these were corrective measures long due to transform real estate into a robust and transparent industry. These short-term hiccups grappling the sector would eventually fade away and help the industry thrive. Barring Chennai new projects dried up in all the eight cities. NCR and Ahmedabad were worst hit with launches plummeting by 73% and 79%, respectively. Sequentially, Mumbai picks by close to 62%, albeit lower by 36% on-year. Chennai was the only market to record a marginal 4% on-year rise in launches, showed the Knight Frank India report. At 596,044 units, unsold inventory was at the lowest across the eight cities during first half of 2017, albeit owing to the shrinking market size. NCR was the worst market with over four years of inventory. There has been a surge in inventory in the 'ready for possession' category. [url]http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/residential/residential-sales-improve-sequentially-post-demonetization-on-year-performance-down-knight-frank-india/59454784[/url]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sumanp6254
On: July 6 2017 12:48 PM
Initial impact of GST A) resturants bills increased by 10% B) Chemists stop giving 10% discount on MRP Jai ho.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: harshogle
On: July 6 2017 01:16 PM
[QUOTE=sumanp6254;n2530683]Initial impact of GST A) resturants bills increased by 10% B) Chemists stop giving 10% discount on MRP Jai ho.[/QUOTE] Are you living in dreamland? Why would restaurants increase prices by 10%?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 6 2017 01:21 PM
[QUOTE=MANOJa;n2530632][h=1]Residential sales improve sequentially post demonetisation: Knight Frank India[/h] While sales across top eight cities during 2017's first half ended June is down 11% on year, it has risen by the same proportion when compared with July-December period that was marked by the demonetization shock[URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/author/479214943/kailash-babar"]Kailash Babar[/URL] | ET Bureau | Updated: July 05, 2017, 14:26 IST [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/mumbai"]MUMBAI[/URL]: [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/residential"]Residential[/URL] real estate sales, led by the performance of affordable [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/housing"]housing[/URL], is registering improvement in pace and has come out of the shadows of demonetization woes. However, it is yet to reach the [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/pre-demonetization"]pre-demonetization[/URL] levels. While sales across top eight cities during 2017's first half ended June is down 11% on year, it has risen by the same proportion when compared with July-December period that was marked by the demonetization shock, showed a [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/knight+frank+india"]Knight Frank India[/URL] report. Affordable housing has been outpacing other segments on account of the government's thrust on Housing For All, discounts on ready inventory and improved sentiments among buyers courtesy [URL="http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tag/rera"]RERA[/URL] has driven sales volumes on sequential basis. The first half of 2017 has witnessed the resurrection of affordable housing across India with 71% of the launches under the Rs 50 lakh price segment up from 52% during the same period last year. Property markets of National Capital Region, Kolkata, Pune and Ahmedabad have driven the revival of affordable housing projects with around 80% of launches in these cities in the sub Rs 50 lakh segment. Following the government's demonetization announcement, there were signs of extreme caution by buyers, while real estate developers also refrained from announcing any new launches during this period. Although the market may not soon move closer to the levels seen almost three years ago since when it has been in a slumber, the improvement in sales numbers is robust, experts said. However, on annual basis, the performance of residential real estate, both in terms of launches and sales continues to be down. Residential launches have come to a grinding halt and have declined 41% to its seven-year low. This was attributed to hangover of demonetization in January and February, while launches were hit in May and June own account of RERA compliance. Sales volume is also down 11% from a year ago and is lowest first-half sales in the past five years. "Some of the most path-breaking reforms in independent India came to force in quick succession over a span of a few months. Described by many as the battery of reforms against the black economy in an unorganised sector, brave policy decisions such as demonetisation, the Real Estate (Regulations and Development) Act, 2016, the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act, 2016 and the recently rolled out Goods and Services Tax Act (GST) have time and again pushed the already sluggish residential market to the brink," said Shishir Baijal, CMD, Knight Frank India. However, he believes that these were corrective measures long due to transform real estate into a robust and transparent industry. These short-term hiccups grappling the sector would eventually fade away and help the industry thrive. Barring Chennai new projects dried up in all the eight cities. NCR and Ahmedabad were worst hit with launches plummeting by 73% and 79%, respectively. Sequentially, Mumbai picks by close to 62%, albeit lower by 36% on-year. Chennai was the only market to record a marginal 4% on-year rise in launches, showed the Knight Frank India report. At 596,044 units, unsold inventory was at the lowest across the eight cities during first half of 2017, albeit owing to the shrinking market size. NCR was the worst market with over four years of inventory. There has been a surge in inventory in the 'ready for possession' category. [url]http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/residential/residential-sales-improve-sequentially-post-demonetization-on-year-performance-down-knight-frank-india/59454784[/url] [/QUOTE] Interesting to read different reports giving different figures. One says that new launches fell by 71%, whereas another says that sales plummeted by 41%. So the dip in sales is not as much as the dip in launches?? Also they don't give a city specific inventory overhang and what is the type/location of this. So quite muddled up reporting with no clarity whatsoever.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sumanp6254
On: July 6 2017 01:27 PM
[QUOTE=harshogle;n2530697] Are you living in dreamland? Why would restaurants increase prices by 10%?[/QUOTE] And this is how the government is looting now - state govt. Indians will now have to pay more taxes with state and center passing the buck. - [url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/maha-hikes-road-tax-on-private-cars-by-2/articleshow/59432393.cms[/url] The public is doomed with high inflation forever with the govt raking the moolah
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: polo1234
On: July 6 2017 01:45 PM
[QUOTE=manas30;n2530416] I will not disclose my picks in a public forum for the simple reason that layman investors will copy and invest in those stocks. Those stocks may/may not perform- I may sell my todays stocks to buy better opportunities 2 mths from now. But, those investors will keep holding those stocks. Now, my portfolio will then still double, while the stocks that i disclose today may go down. Today, stock mkt is very volatile and stocks are violently reacting to quarterly results, while index is lazying around. so, one needs to be quick and sharp. What I don't like in this mkt- I don't like pharma and IT. They may have low downside, but I am here for upside. not for 15% annual returns.[/QUOTE] @manas .. may be you can share your investment strategy .. how do you analyze stocks, how do select them , when do you know its time to enter / exit , what sort of signals you look out for .How much money / % portfolio you put in one stock . And honestly sharing stock picks also has no harm , people here are not blind followers .. most of us actually are more interested in the stock selection and reason
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: Dkumar12
On: July 6 2017 01:46 PM
This GST is big thing and it will take some time to settle the dust. But few good things I heard are happening 1. octroi are removed in many states. This is decreasing cost and time of transportation 2. many businesses were not paying taxes, now they have come under tax net. Regarding the pharmacist giving discount earlier, how was he able to give discount earlier? And why he cannot give now. This needs to be understood. Was there any loop hole which is plugged now.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: flatowner2
On: July 6 2017 01:57 PM
[QUOTE=ggnhomeowner;n2530701] Interesting to read different reports giving different figures. One says that new launches fell by 71%, whereas another says that sales plummeted by 41%. So the dip in sales is not as much as the dip in launches?? Also they don't give a city specific inventory overhang and what is the type/location of this. So quite muddled up reporting with no clarity whatsoever. [/QUOTE] Yesterday one of the news channel showing report in which they told that Delhi NCR is worst hit where Sales is down for 25% in H12017.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 6 2017 02:25 PM
Are these figures capturing the resale market or just the builder sales?
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 6 2017 02:31 PM
[QUOTE=Dkumar12;n2530718]This GST is big thing and it will take some time to settle the dust. [/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms]Basically people need some time to figure out and erect, parallel tax free supply chains. :) Expect massive contraband, cheating, breaking of regulations and heavy bribes. After a few months we will be back all the tax free discounts we had before. :)[/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: harshogle
On: July 6 2017 02:36 PM
[QUOTE=sumanp6254;n2530683]Initial impact of GST A) resturants bills increased by 10% B) Chemists stop giving 10% discount on MRP Jai ho.[/QUOTE] May be your restaurant was cheating on taxes earlier. Earlier incidence of tax rate under previous regime was around 20.5% (VAT + Service tax). Now, after GST it is 12% for non-AC restaurants and 18% for AC restaurants. Read thsi article if you want to understand: [url]http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/how-gst-impacts-your-restaurant-bill-4736868/[/url] Second, Now, restaurants can use 5% input credit to reduce the prices wwhich is charged on input goods like Oil, Branded atta etc.or their phone bills (18%)
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: humblefool
On: July 6 2017 02:55 PM
[QUOTE]I think I mentioned this earlier.. Cheating and Fraud wont be easy going forward. How many years or months it will take, I am not sure. I speak to people who deal in cash and they say this time is different for them.[/QUOTE] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]This is true in the Ideal world. But it depends on the overall culture of the society. Things like GST are once in few a decade reforms, either they work or they don't. If they don't the next correction comes 30-40 years later. People get all the time in the world to figure out how to beat this, and they eventually beat it.[/FONT] [FONT=trebuchet ms, helvetica, sans-serif]The real issue is anybody who doesn't have an IT infrastructure and a business workflow that enables a strict audit, will inevitably cook their books big time. You will from the start to the end, have receipt less businesses. Like the ones that already existed. Which is why income tax office people, commissioners exist- If these people were honest you wouldn't even need GST at the first place. But these people are super corrupt to the core, and they actively help the people who pay them to evade taxes. I don't blame them, given home much bribe these people receive, there is no way they will side with the government. One of the things that people realized from the Greece crisis is it barely mattered what law government passed. If your country is full of people who are hell bent on cheating on taxes then you can't do much. In case of Greece apart from rampant corruption, people invented innovative things like Parallel currencies and parallel supply chains. The government realized, they needed more like social change and change in attitudes. My guess is GST will turn out the same way in India. [/FONT]
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: JoBhiMain
On: July 6 2017 02:58 PM
[QUOTE=sumanp6254;n2530683]Initial impact of GST A) resturants bills increased by 10% B) Chemists stop giving 10% discount on MRP Jai ho.[/QUOTE] There's been a lot of discussion around restaurant bills increasing and all that. I believe a lot of people are being mislead just because a few journos / activists / politicians want the current central govt to look bad. In the interest of making things clear, I am explaining how restaurant bills used be taxed and how do they compare to GST? [U]Pre-GST[/U] Eating in an AC Restaurant was considered as the sale of both goods and service. The general guidance from the govt was to treat the restaurant bill as 60% sale of goods and 40% sale of service. The state VAT was levied on the 60% portion of the bill while the central service tax was levied on the rest 40%. Assuming you eat out in Gurgaon (Haryana) and your bill is Rs 1000, the VAT as per Haryana rates (20%) would be Rs 1000 * 60% of the bill * 20% VAT = Rs 120. And service tax at 15% (incl krishi kalyan and swachh bharat) would be calculated as Rs 1000 * 40% of the bill * 15% = Rs 60. Total tax = Rs 180 or [B]18% of the pre-tax bill[/B]. [U]Post GST[/U] Total tax = [B]18% GST[/B] [B]Now Tell me how has the restaurant bill increased, at least in Gurgaon?[/B] Please note that I have not assumed any service charges which the restaurants levy as that would anyways be levied on the total bill in both the cases so the net impact will be same. [USER="78537"]MANOJa[/USER] I don't want to start an off topic discussion but I feel it's important to give the right perspective when people are being misled.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: shalumani
On: July 6 2017 05:25 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530364]I dont know what to say. Magicbricks or 99 acres or any other re site, functions on advertisement model. you put up an ad...pay for it...how do they gain from fudging numbers? [/QUOTE] In addition to the reply by vaibhav, the values on magic bricks are bogus. Let me explain why. 1. I put up a house for sale on magic bricks for 5000 psf, and manage to sell it for 4600 psf. The only data that magic bricks has is the listing price, not the transaction price. Since most people would list a property keeping a margin for negotiation, the true price of the property is not revealed. 2. Even as an indicator of listed price, magic bricks is bad. Say in 2011, in sec 84 GGN, there were 5 projects, 4 affordable and 1 luxury. In 2017, there are 10 projects in the location out of which 5 are in luxury and 5 are in affordable segments. The rate in 2017 will be higher than the rate on 2011, mainly because the number of luxury projects has gone up, and they tend to be more expensive than the affordable ones. (Assuming equal # of flats are listed from each project to arrive at an accurate listing price)
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 6 2017 05:36 PM
[QUOTE=shalumani;n2530840] In addition to the reply by vaibhav, the values on magic bricks are bogus. Let me explain why. 1. I put up a house for sale on magic bricks for 5000 psf, and manage to sell it for 4600 psf. The only data that magic bricks has is the listing price, not the transaction price. Since most people would list a property keeping a margin for negotiation, the true price of the property is not revealed. 2. Even as an indicator of listed price, magic bricks is bad. Say in 2011, in sec 84 GGN, there were 5 projects, 4 affordable and 1 luxury. In 2017, there are 10 projects in the location out of which 5 are in luxury and 5 are in affordable segments. The rate in 2017 will be higher than the rate on 2011, mainly because the number of luxury projects has gone up, and they tend to be more expensive than the affordable ones. (Assuming equal # of flats are listed from each project to arrive at an accurate listing price) [/QUOTE] Statistics give trends, not actual numbers. I was trying to capture the % growth psft from 2011 to 2107, - Negotiations happened in 2011 as well as in 2017, so pt 1 is irrelevant - launches of luxury properties have actually gone down, rather last few years affordable housing has majority of launches. So pt 2 is contradictory.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: raabta
On: July 6 2017 05:40 PM
[USER="175344"]Vaibhav123[/USER] re portals do not give sale figures, as they dont have any way of capturing those details. In fact the competition amongst RE portals is to attract buyers, who would always prefer a portal giving them a lower price. That is the exact modus operandi of brokers who deliberately list properties below market price to attract buyers.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: ggnhomeowner
On: July 6 2017 05:54 PM
[QUOTE=raabta;n2530752]Are these figures capturing the resale market or just the builder sales?[/QUOTE] They capture only the builder sales, nothing about resales. This is the reason that these reports are a joke. I would prefer to believe the RBI data which is more wholesome and gives a better indicator. How come the home loan portfolios overall are still growing if sales are falling continuously?? The growth rate might have come down, but still growing. Impossible if the total sales were falling!
With warm regards,
Team IREF
https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/gurgaon-real-estate/13876-real-estate-bubble-set-to-burst-again-in-india
Posted by: sapvin82
On: July 7 2017 02:10 AM
Where is RE crash and where is RE bubble ??? GST has created additional 1 lakh jobs. Business cant hide GST tax because they wont get any input credit. RE is booming... prices appreciating everywhere. Thank god Acche din aa gaye.
With warm regards,
Team IREF
With warm regards,
Team IREF
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